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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Jose Quinonez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1393

Elo1365

Jose QuinonezvsDiego RivasUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · Saturday, August 5, 2017Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Jose Quinonez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jose Quinonez wins(55.8%)

Actual result: Jose Quinonez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jose Quinonez at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Diego Rivas is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Jose Quinonez has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Jose Quinonez has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Diego Rivas has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jose Quinonez

Red Corner

Diego Rivas

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1393

Elo

1365

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jose QuinonezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Teruto Ishihara · Feb 18

SUBvs Nathaniel Wood · Mar 19

vs Carlos Huachin · Sep 19

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Mar 20

KOvs Louis Smolka · Dec 20

latest

Diego Rivas

oldest →

DECvs Rodolfo Rubio · Nov 14

KOvs Noad Lahat · Feb 16

vs Guido Cannetti · May 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jose QuinonezMetricDiego Rivas

3.60

Strikes / min

1.37

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

2.14

64%

Strike defense

52%

2.70

TDs / 15 min

1.79

42%

Takedown defense

64%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60Δ 1.37 — meaningful gap-0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jose QuinonezDiego Rivas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jose Quinonez(9 fights)Diego Rivas(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.2|Blue -27.2

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -224.0|Blue +224.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jose QuinonezTargetDiego Rivas

By target zone

42% acc · 58%

Head

22% acc · 41%

65% acc · 19%

Body

50% acc · 22%

100% acc · 24%

Leg

77% acc · 37%

By position

52% acc · 81%

Distance

34% acc · 93%

25% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

63% acc · 17%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jose Quinonez rounds

even

Diego Rivas rounds

Round 1Jose Quinonez edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:32

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jose Quinonez edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control1:43

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jose Quinonez edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:41

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 112

Sig Strikes

27 / 76

52%

Sig Str %

36.3%

70 / 125

Total Strikes

29 / 78

1 / 4

TDs

1 / 1

33.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:56

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Diego Rivas	7 / 24	8 / 25	0 / 0	0
1	Jose Quinonez	14 / 36	14 / 36	0 / 2	0
2	Diego Rivas	13 / 23	14 / 24	0 / 0	0
2	Jose Quinonez	24 / 40	32 / 48	1 / 1	0
3	Diego Rivas	7 / 29	7 / 29	1 / 1	2
3	Jose Quinonez	21 / 36	24 / 41	0 / 1	0

Jose Quinonez

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9

Diego Rivas

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4