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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Ortiz won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1353

Elo1491

Jose MariavsDustin OrtizUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · Saturday, November 9, 2013Goiania, Goias, Brazil

Official fight result

Dustin Ortiz won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:19

Style matchupJose Maria: WrestlervsDustin Ortiz: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jose Maria wins(65.0%)

Actual result: Dustin Ortiz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jose Maria at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dustin Ortiz is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Jose Maria has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Dustin Ortiz has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jose Maria

Red Corner

Dustin Ortiz

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1353

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'5"

165 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jose Maria

oldest →

KOvs John Lineker · Aug 13

latest

Dustin Ortiz

oldest →

SUBvs Brandon Moreno · Apr 17

KOvs Hector Sandoval · Aug 17

vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jan 18

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Jul 18

vs Joseph Benavidez · Jan 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jose MariaMetricDustin Ortiz

3.20

Strikes / min

2.94

3.98

Strikes absorbed / min

2.17

52%

Strike defense

56%

2.32

TDs / 15 min

3.01

33%

Takedown defense

52%

2.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.78Δ 1.55 — meaningful gap+0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jose MariaDustin Ortiz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jose Maria(2 fights)Dustin Ortiz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -138.9|Blue +138.9

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jose MariaTargetDustin Ortiz

By target zone

29% acc · 30%

Head

37% acc · 51%

63% acc · 12%

Body

100% acc · 31%

93% acc · 58%

Leg

91% acc · 18%

By position

48% acc · 79%

Distance

29% acc · 36%

100% acc · 19%

Clinch

93% acc · 25%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jose Maria rounds

even

Dustin Ortiz rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control1:07

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:41Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:29

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:56Control

Round 3Dustin Ortiz edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 80

Sig Strikes

55 / 104

60%

Sig Str %

60.7%

55 / 92

Total Strikes

103 / 155

2 / 6

TDs

4 / 7

25%

TD %

55.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:36

Ctrl Time

5:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dustin Ortiz	13 / 33	25 / 48	2 / 3	0
1	Jose Maria	16 / 30	21 / 35	2 / 4	1
2	Dustin Ortiz	22 / 51	24 / 53	1 / 2	0
2	Jose Maria	24 / 46	25 / 47	0 / 2	1
3	Dustin Ortiz	20 / 20	54 / 54	1 / 2	0
3	Jose Maria	3 / 4	9 / 10	0 / 0	0

Jose Maria

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Dustin Ortiz

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights14