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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Felipe Bunes won · SUB R1

Elo1485

Elo1474

Jose JohnsonvsFelipe BunesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Saturday, January 11, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Felipe Bunes won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:04

Model Prediction: Jose Johnson wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Felipe Bunes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jose Johnson at -166 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Felipe Bunes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Felipe Bunes threatens submissions; Jose Johnson has lost 67% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Jose Johnson

Red Corner

Felipe Bunes

Blue Corner

-166

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1485

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jose Johnson

oldest →

SUBvs Da'Mon Blackshear · Aug 23

SUBvs Chad Anheliger · Nov 23

vs Asu Almabayev · Jun 24

latest

Felipe BunesL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joshua Van · Jan 24

vs Rafael Estevam · Aug 25

vs Edgar Chairez · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jose JohnsonMetricFelipe Bunes

2.27

Strikes / min

3.17

1.61

Strikes absorbed / min

4.57

53%

Strike defense

47%

0.69

TDs / 15 min

1.08

41%

Takedown defense

40%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.66Δ 2.06 — meaningful gap-1.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jose JohnsonFelipe Bunes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jose Johnson(4 fights)Felipe Bunes(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +11.8|Blue -11.8

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -154.0|Blue +154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jose JohnsonTargetFelipe Bunes

By target zone

38% acc · 38%

Head

29% acc · 100%

75% acc · 38%

Body

100% acc · 25%

Leg

By position

64% acc · 88%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jose Johnson rounds

even

Felipe Bunes rounds

Round 1Jose Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:48

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 14

Sig Strikes

2 / 7

57%

Sig Str %

28%

8 / 15

Total Strikes

5 / 10

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:48

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Felipe Bunes	2 / 7	5 / 10	0 / 2	2
1	Jose Johnson	8 / 14	8 / 15	0 / 0	0

Jose Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Felipe Bunes

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4