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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Dusko Todorovic won · SUB R1

Elo1428

Elo1494

Jose Daniel MedinavsDusko TodorovicUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Saturday, September 13, 2025San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Dusko Todorovic won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:21

Model Prediction: Dusko Todorovic wins(70.8%)

Actual result: Dusko Todorovic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dusko Todorovic at -405 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jose Daniel Medina enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Dusko Todorovic enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Dusko Todorovic is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Jose Daniel Medina has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Dusko Todorovic has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jose Daniel Medina

Red Corner

Dusko Todorovic

Blue Corner

+320

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-405

(80%)

1428

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jose Daniel MedinaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Zachary Reese · Aug 24

KOvs Ateba Gautier · Mar 25

KOvs Ryan Gandra · Feb 26

latest

Dusko TodorovicL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chidi Njokuani · May 22

KOvs Jordan Wright · Oct 22

KOvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Mar 23

KOvs Mansur Abdul-Malik · Nov 24

vs Zach Reese · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jose Daniel MedinaMetricDusko Todorovic

2.13

Strikes / min

4.73

5.34

Strikes absorbed / min

4.40

46%

Strike defense

48%

0.39

TDs / 15 min

1.77

27%

Takedown defense

42%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-3.21Δ 3.54 — meaningful gap+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jose Daniel MedinaDusko Todorovic

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jose Daniel Medina(4 fights)Dusko Todorovic(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -66.8|Blue +66.8

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jose Daniel MedinaTargetDusko Todorovic

By target zone

29% acc · 56%

Head

56% acc · 63%

43% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 38%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

By position

38% acc · 100%

Distance

56% acc · 63%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 38%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jose Daniel Medina rounds

even

Dusko Todorovic rounds

Round 1Dusko Todorovic edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 25

Sig Strikes

16 / 24

36%

Sig Str %

66%

13 / 29

Total Strikes

27 / 36

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dusko Todorovic	16 / 24	27 / 36	2 / 2	1
1	Jose Daniel Medina	9 / 25	13 / 29	0 / 0	0

Jose Daniel Medina

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4

Dusko Todorovic

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10