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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Ateba Gautier won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1428
Jose Daniel Medina
Elo1601
Ateba Gautier editorial illustration

Jose Daniel MedinavsAteba GautierUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Saturday, March 29, 2025Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Ateba Gautier won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:32

Model Prediction: Ateba Gautier wins(83.9%)

Actual result: Ateba Gautier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ateba Gautier at -460 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jose Daniel Medina enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Ateba Gautier enters on a 4-fight win streak.
  • Ateba Gautier is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Jose Daniel Medina has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Ateba Gautier has 66pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Ateba Gautier (52.9%).
  • Ateba Gautier has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jose Daniel Medina
Red Corner
VS
Ateba Gautier
Blue Corner
+360
(22%)
Vegas Odds
-460
(82%)
1428
Elo
1601
35
Age
24
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'0"
Height
6'4"
187.96 cm
Reach
205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jose Daniel MedinaL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Zachary Reese · Aug 24
L
SUBvs Dusko Todorovic · Sep 25
L
KOvs Ryan Gandra · Feb 26
latest
Ateba GautierW4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Robert Valentin · Jul 25
W
KOvs Tre'ston Vines · Oct 25
W
vs Andrey Pulyaev · Jan 26
W
KOvs Ozzy Diaz · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jose Daniel MedinaMetricAteba Gautier
2.13
Strikes / min
4.32
5.34
Strikes absorbed / min
2.60
46%
Strike defense
54%
0.39
TDs / 15 min
0.41
27%
Takedown defense
93%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-3.21Δ 4.93 — meaningful gap+1.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1481 vs 1500Strikes2.1 vs 4.4Takedowns0.4 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Jose Daniel MedinaAteba Gautier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14101463151515681620← oldermost recent →
Jose Daniel Medina(4 fights)Ateba Gautier(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -173.0|Blue +173.0
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Grappler Score
Red -49.9|Blue +49.9
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jose Daniel MedinaTargetAteba Gautier

By target zone

6
29% acc · 35%
Head
24
56% acc · 86%
6
86% acc · 35%
Body
3
50% acc · 11%
5
100% acc · 29%
Leg
1
100% acc · 4%

By position

17
52% acc · 100%
Distance
26
54% acc · 93%
0
Clinch
2
100% acc · 7%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jose Daniel Medina rounds
0
even
1
Ateba Gautier rounds
Round 1Ateba Gautier edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
17 / 33
Sig Strikes
28 / 50
51%
Sig Str %
56%
17 / 33
Total Strikes
28 / 50
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ateba Gautier28 / 5028 / 500 / 00
1Jose Daniel Medina17 / 3317 / 330 / 00

Jose Daniel Medina

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4

Ateba Gautier

StanceSwitch
Height76.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights5