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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Jose Aldo won · U-DEC R5

Elo1493

Jose AldovsRicardo LamasUFC Prediction Result

UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · Saturday, February 1, 2014Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Jose Aldo won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jose Aldo wins(57.2%)

Actual result: Jose Aldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jose Aldo at -750 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jose Aldo has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jose Aldo

Red Corner

Ricardo Lamas

Blue Corner

-750

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+600

(14%)

1493

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jose AldoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rob Font · Dec 21

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22

vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24

vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25

latest

Ricardo Lamas

oldest →

KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 17

vs Mirsad Bektic · Jun 18

KOvs Darren Elkins · Nov 18

KOvs Calvin Kattar · Jun 19

vs Bill Algeo · Aug 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jose AldoMetricRicardo Lamas

3.65

Strikes / min

3.13

3.81

Strikes absorbed / min

2.87

60%

Strike defense

57%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

1.84

92%

Takedown defense

46%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.16evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jose AldoRicardo Lamas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jose Aldo(10 fights)Ricardo Lamas(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +2.6|Blue -2.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -189.0|Blue +189.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jose AldoTargetRicardo Lamas

By target zone

40% acc · 47%

Head

18% acc · 41%

54% acc · 21%

Body

57% acc · 20%

91% acc · 32%

Leg

40% acc · 39%

By position

50% acc · 90%

Distance

23% acc · 66%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

86% acc · 15%

0% acc

Ground

38% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jose Aldo rounds

even

Ricardo Lamas rounds

Round 1Jose Aldo edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:02

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jose Aldo edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jose Aldo edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Jose Aldo edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control2:58

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:34Control

Round 5Ricardo Lamas edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control2:11

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 119

Sig Strikes

41 / 146

52.8%

Sig Str %

33%

85 / 143

Total Strikes

63 / 170

2 / 2

TDs

1 / 6

100%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

5:11

Ctrl Time

4:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ricardo Lamas	3 / 26	3 / 26	0 / 0	0
1	Jose Aldo	14 / 26	14 / 26	0 / 0	0
2	Ricardo Lamas	10 / 39	10 / 39	0 / 0	0
2	Jose Aldo	24 / 45	24 / 45	0 / 0	0
3	Ricardo Lamas	13 / 47	13 / 47	0 / 1	0
3	Jose Aldo	20 / 41	21 / 42	0 / 0	0
4	Jose Aldo	4 / 7	16 / 20	1 / 1	2
4	Ricardo Lamas	6 / 9	20 / 24	0 / 4	0
5	Ricardo Lamas	9 / 25	17 / 34	1 / 1	0
5	Jose Aldo	0 / 0	10 / 10	1 / 1	0

Jose Aldo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights23

Ricardo Lamas

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights17