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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jose Aldo won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1493

Elo1523

Jose AldovsRenato MoicanoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · Saturday, February 2, 2019Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Jose Aldo won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:44

Style matchupJose Aldo: StrikervsRenato Moicano: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Renato Moicano wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Jose Aldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Renato Moicano at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jose Aldo has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jose Aldo

Red Corner

Renato Moicano

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1493

Elo

1523

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jose AldoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rob Font · Dec 21

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22

vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24

vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25

latest

Renato Moicano

oldest →

KOvs Jalin Turner · Apr 24

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 25

vs Beneil Dariush · Jun 25

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jose AldoMetricRenato Moicano

3.65

Strikes / min

4.10

3.81

Strikes absorbed / min

3.55

60%

Strike defense

59%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

1.68

92%

Takedown defense

64%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.16evenly matched on net striking+0.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jose AldoRenato Moicano

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jose Aldo(10 fights)Renato Moicano(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -29.3|Blue +29.3

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jose AldoTargetRenato Moicano

By target zone

50% acc · 69%

Head

43% acc · 71%

67% acc · 23%

Body

25% acc · 4%

40% acc · 8%

Leg

67% acc · 25%

By position

44% acc · 73%

Distance

45% acc · 100%

100% acc · 27%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jose Aldo rounds

even

Renato Moicano rounds

Round 1Renato Moicano edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jose Aldo edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 50

Sig Strikes

24 / 53

53%

Sig Str %

47%

26 / 50

Total Strikes

24 / 53

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Renato Moicano	20 / 45	20 / 45	0 / 0
1	Jose Aldo	10 / 27	10 / 27	0 / 0
2	Renato Moicano	4 / 8	4 / 8	0 / 0
2	Jose Aldo	16 / 23	16 / 23	0 / 0

Jose Aldo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights23

Renato Moicano

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20