← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Jose Aldo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1488

Jose AldovsPedro MunhozUFC Prediction Result

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Saturday, August 7, 2021Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Jose Aldo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJose Aldo: StrikervsPedro Munhoz: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Jose Aldo wins(55.0%)

Actual result: Jose Aldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jose Aldo at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Pedro Munhoz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jose Aldo has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jose Aldo

Red Corner

Pedro Munhoz

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1493

Elo

1488

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jose AldoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rob Font · Dec 21

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22

vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24

vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25

latest

Pedro MunhozL3 streak

oldest →

vs Dominick Cruz · Dec 21

vs Chris Gutierrez · Apr 23

vs Marlon Vera · Aug 23

vs Kyler Phillips · Mar 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jose AldoMetricPedro Munhoz

3.65

Strikes / min

5.38

3.81

Strikes absorbed / min

6.29

60%

Strike defense

55%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

0.48

92%

Takedown defense

82%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.16evenly matched on net striking-0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jose AldoPedro Munhoz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jose Aldo(10 fights)Pedro Munhoz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.8|Blue -4.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jose AldoTargetPedro Munhoz

By target zone

44% acc · 65%

Head

27% acc · 47%

68% acc · 28%

Body

50% acc · 4%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

88% acc · 49%

By position

114

51% acc · 100%

Distance

41% acc · 95%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jose Aldo rounds

even

Pedro Munhoz rounds

Round 1Pedro Munhoz edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Jose Aldo edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jose Aldo edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

114 / 223

Sig Strikes

75 / 179

51.3%

Sig Str %

41.7%

114 / 223

Total Strikes

75 / 179

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Pedro Munhoz	28 / 76	28 / 76	0 / 0
1	Jose Aldo	25 / 60	25 / 60	0 / 0
2	Pedro Munhoz	33 / 71	33 / 71	0 / 0
2	Jose Aldo	42 / 95	42 / 95	0 / 0
3	Pedro Munhoz	14 / 32	14 / 32	0 / 0
3	Jose Aldo	47 / 68	47 / 68	0 / 0

Jose Aldo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights23

Pedro Munhoz

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights20