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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Merab Dvalishvili won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1542

Jose AldovsMerab DvalishviliUFC Prediction Result

UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · Saturday, August 20, 2022Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Merab Dvalishvili won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJose Aldo: StrikervsMerab Dvalishvili: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili wins(83.4%)

Actual result: Merab Dvalishvili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Merab Dvalishvili at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jose Aldo has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Jose Aldo

Red Corner

Merab Dvalishvili

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1493

Elo

1542

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jose AldoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 21

vs Rob Font · Dec 21

vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24

vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25

latest

Merab Dvalishvili

oldest →

vs Sean O'Malley · Sep 24

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 25

SUBvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 25

vs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 25

vs Petr Yan · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jose AldoMetricMerab Dvalishvili

3.65

Strikes / min

4.42

3.81

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

60%

Strike defense

54%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

5.97

92%

Takedown defense

76%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.16Δ 1.78 — meaningful gap+1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jose AldoMerab Dvalishvili

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jose Aldo(10 fights)Merab Dvalishvili(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -49.2|Blue +49.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jose AldoTargetMerab Dvalishvili

By target zone

31% acc · 29%

Head

20% acc · 35%

84% acc · 55%

Body

71% acc · 18%

86% acc · 16%

Leg

87% acc · 47%

By position

56% acc · 92%

Distance

33% acc · 75%

75% acc · 8%

Clinch

93% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jose Aldo rounds

even

Merab Dvalishvili rounds

Round 1Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 2Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:54Control

Round 3Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:38Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 67

Sig Strikes

57 / 147

56.7%

Sig Str %

37.3%

59 / 92

Total Strikes

135 / 230

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 16

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

5:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Merab Dvalishvili	16 / 49	21 / 54	0 / 3
1	Jose Aldo	15 / 25	21 / 31	0 / 0
2	Merab Dvalishvili	11 / 29	62 / 84	0 / 6
2	Jose Aldo	11 / 22	25 / 39	0 / 0
3	Merab Dvalishvili	30 / 69	52 / 92	0 / 7
3	Jose Aldo	12 / 20	13 / 22	0 / 0

Jose Aldo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights23

Merab Dvalishvili

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17