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Featherweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Max Holloway won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1493
Jose Aldo
Elo1517
Max Holloway editorial illustration

Jose AldovsMax HollowayUFC Prediction Result

UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · Saturday, June 3, 2017Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Max Holloway won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:13

Style matchupJose Aldo: StrikervsMax Holloway: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Max Holloway wins(55.7%)

Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Holloway at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jose Aldo
Red Corner
VS
Max Holloway
Blue Corner
-145
(59%)
Vegas Odds
+125
(44%)
1493
Elo
1517
39
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jose AldoL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Rob Font · Dec 21
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22
W
vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24
L
vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24
L
vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25
latest
Max Holloway
oldest →
W
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24
L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24
W
vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25
L
vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26
W
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jose AldoMetricMax Holloway
3.65
Strikes / min
6.91
3.81
Strikes absorbed / min
4.61
60%
Strike defense
58%
0.47
TDs / 15 min
0.23
92%
Takedown defense
81%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.16Δ 2.46 — meaningful gap+2.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1609 vs 1645Strikes56.6 vs 66.2Takedowns1.3 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.33 vs 0.44Form0.5 vs 1.0
Jose AldoMax Holloway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Jose Aldo(10 fights)Max Holloway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -24.2|Blue +24.2
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +154.0|Blue -154.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jose AldoTargetMax Holloway

By target zone

41
44% acc · 75%
Head
87
47% acc · 84%
13
68% acc · 24%
Body
16
76% acc · 15%
1
100% acc · 2%
Leg
1
100% acc · 1%

By position

53
48% acc · 96%
Distance
61
41% acc · 59%
2
100% acc · 4%
Clinch
2
67% acc · 2%
0
Ground
41
75% acc · 39%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Jose Aldo rounds
1
even
1
Max Holloway rounds
Round 1Jose Aldo edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Max Holloway edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
64Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:04Control
1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
55 / 113
Sig Strikes
104 / 207
45.3%
Sig Str %
45.7%
56 / 115
Total Strikes
128 / 234
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
2:04

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Max Holloway12 / 3212 / 320 / 00
1Jose Aldo19 / 3519 / 350 / 00
2Max Holloway28 / 7828 / 780 / 00
2Jose Aldo29 / 5529 / 550 / 00
3Max Holloway64 / 9788 / 1240 / 00
3Jose Aldo7 / 238 / 250 / 00

Jose Aldo

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights23

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights33