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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Jose Aldo won · U-DEC

Elo1493

Elo1475

Jose AldovsMarlon VeraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · Saturday, December 19, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jose Aldo won

U-DEC

Style matchupJose Aldo: StrikervsMarlon Vera: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Marlon Vera wins(50.1%)

Actual result: Jose Aldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marlon Vera at +120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marlon Vera enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jose Aldo has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jose Aldo has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Marlon Vera (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jose Aldo

Red Corner

Marlon Vera

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1493

Elo

1475

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'7"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jose AldoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rob Font · Dec 21

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22

vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24

vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25

latest

Marlon VeraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 23

vs Sean O'Malley · Mar 24

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Oct 25

vs David Martinez · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jose AldoMetricMarlon Vera

3.65

Strikes / min

4.18

3.81

Strikes absorbed / min

5.34

60%

Strike defense

50%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

0.47

92%

Takedown defense

71%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.16evenly matched on net striking-1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jose AldoMarlon Vera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jose Aldo(10 fights)Marlon Vera(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.7|Blue -18.7

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jose AldoTargetMarlon Vera

By target zone

45% acc · 39%

Head

24% acc · 17%

81% acc · 48%

Body

73% acc · 24%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

79% acc · 59%

By position

58% acc · 82%

Distance

49% acc · 74%

100% acc · 18%

Clinch

92% acc · 26%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jose Aldo rounds

even

Marlon Vera rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:04

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:26Control

Round 2Marlon Vera edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:25Control

Round 3Jose Aldo edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control4:53

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 70

Sig Strikes

46 / 82

58.7%

Sig Str %

59%

60 / 86

Total Strikes

92 / 133

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 3

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:57

Ctrl Time

2:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marlon Vera	16 / 29	29 / 42	0 / 1
1	Jose Aldo	19 / 29	28 / 38	0 / 0
2	Marlon Vera	28 / 50	39 / 63	0 / 2
2	Jose Aldo	24 / 39	25 / 40	0 / 0
3	Marlon Vera	2 / 3	24 / 28	0 / 0
3	Jose Aldo	1 / 2	7 / 8	0 / 2

Jose Aldo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights23

Marlon Vera

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26