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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Jose Aldo won · U-DEC R5

Elo1493

Elo1352

Jose AldovsMark HominickUFC Prediction Result

UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · Saturday, April 30, 2011Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Jose Aldo won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJose Aldo: StrikervsMark Hominick: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Mark Hominick wins(79.1%)

Actual result: Jose Aldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mark Hominick at +435 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mark Hominick enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jose Aldo has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jose Aldo

Red Corner

Mark Hominick

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+435

(19%)

1493

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jose AldoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rob Font · Dec 21

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22

vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24

vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25

latest

Mark HominickL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs George Roop · Jan 11

KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Dec 11

vs Eddie Yagin · Apr 12

vs Pablo Garza · Nov 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jose AldoMetricMark Hominick

3.65

Strikes / min

4.08

3.81

Strikes absorbed / min

4.18

60%

Strike defense

69%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

0.25

92%

Takedown defense

71%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.16evenly matched on net striking-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jose AldoMark Hominick

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jose Aldo(10 fights)Mark Hominick(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +141.5|Blue -141.5

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +47.9|Blue -47.9

Grappler Score

Red +49.9|Blue -49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jose AldoTargetMark Hominick

By target zone

38% acc · 77%

Head

34% acc · 70%

80% acc · 4%

Body

68% acc · 24%

95% acc · 19%

Leg

50% acc · 6%

By position

40% acc · 70%

Distance

34% acc · 70%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

57% acc · 30%

Ground

65% acc · 28%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jose Aldo rounds

even

Mark Hominick rounds

Round 1Jose Aldo edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns2

Control2:56

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jose Aldo edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns2

Control2:34

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jose Aldo edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control1:38

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Jose Aldo edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control2:06

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 5Mark Hominick edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

94 / 215

Sig Strikes

71 / 181

42.4%

Sig Str %

37%

131 / 258

Total Strikes

147 / 274

5 / 9

TDs

1 / 2

62.5%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

9:14

Ctrl Time

4:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mark Hominick	4 / 18	14 / 28	0 / 0	0
1	Jose Aldo	25 / 35	36 / 47	2 / 2	0
2	Mark Hominick	13 / 36	18 / 41	0 / 0	0
2	Jose Aldo	15 / 40	23 / 51	2 / 4	0
3	Mark Hominick	20 / 53	30 / 63	0 / 1	0
3	Jose Aldo	27 / 72	35 / 82	0 / 2	0
4	Jose Aldo	24 / 56	34 / 66	1 / 1	0
4	Mark Hominick	12 / 36	23 / 47	0 / 0	0
5	Mark Hominick	22 / 38	62 / 95	1 / 1	0
5	Jose Aldo	3 / 12	3 / 12	0 / 0	1

Jose Aldo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights23

Mark Hominick

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5