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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Mario Bautista won · S-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1554

Jose AldovsMario BautistaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Saturday, October 5, 2024Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Mario Bautista won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJose Aldo: StrikervsMario Bautista: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Mario Bautista wins(69.5%)

Actual result: Mario Bautista wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mario Bautista at -122 American odds

+$82 profit

$182 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jose Aldo has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mario Bautista (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jose Aldo

Red Corner

Mario Bautista

Blue Corner

+102

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-122

(55%)

1493

Elo

1554

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'7"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jose Aldo

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 21

vs Rob Font · Dec 21

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22

vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25

latest

Mario BautistaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Ricky Simon · Jan 24

vs Patchy Mix · Jun 25

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25

SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26

DECvs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jose AldoMetricMario Bautista

3.65

Strikes / min

5.30

3.81

Strikes absorbed / min

3.98

60%

Strike defense

54%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

1.91

92%

Takedown defense

55%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.16Δ 1.48 — meaningful gap+1.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jose AldoMario Bautista

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jose Aldo(10 fights)Mario Bautista(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -60.9|Blue +60.9

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jose AldoTargetMario Bautista

By target zone

39% acc · 80%

Head

23% acc · 53%

75% acc · 12%

Body

63% acc · 24%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

92% acc · 22%

By position

41% acc · 90%

Distance

32% acc · 90%

67% acc · 4%

Clinch

83% acc · 10%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jose Aldo rounds

even

Mario Bautista rounds

Round 1Mario Bautista edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:20Control

Round 2Mario Bautista edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:14Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:41Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 117

Sig Strikes

49 / 142

44.3%

Sig Str %

33%

65 / 139

Total Strikes

90 / 196

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 10

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

7:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mario Bautista	20 / 53	40 / 81	0 / 2
1	Jose Aldo	13 / 26	20 / 38	0 / 0
2	Mario Bautista	19 / 53	31 / 65	0 / 4
2	Jose Aldo	21 / 43	25 / 50	0 / 0
3	Mario Bautista	10 / 36	19 / 50	0 / 4
3	Jose Aldo	17 / 48	20 / 51	0 / 0

Jose Aldo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights23

Mario Bautista

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15