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Featherweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Jose Aldo won · U-DEC R5
Elo1493
Jose Aldo
Elo1490

Jose AldovsKenny FlorianUFC Prediction Result

UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · Saturday, October 8, 2011Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Jose Aldo won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJose Aldo: StrikervsKenny Florian: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Jose Aldo wins(72.9%)

Actual result: Jose Aldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jose Aldo at -355 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jose Aldo has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Kenny Florian (53.5%).
  • Kenny Florian has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jose Aldo
Red Corner
VS
Kenny Florian
Blue Corner
-355
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+320
(24%)
1493
Elo
1490
39
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jose AldoL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Rob Font · Dec 21
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22
W
vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24
L
vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24
L
vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25
latest
Kenny Florian
oldest →
W
SUBvs Takanori Gomi · Mar 10
L
vs Gray Maynard · Aug 10
W
vs Diego Nunes · Jun 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jose AldoMetricKenny Florian
3.65
Strikes / min
2.41
3.81
Strikes absorbed / min
1.85
60%
Strike defense
63%
0.47
TDs / 15 min
2.22
92%
Takedown defense
60%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.16evenly matched on net striking+0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1517 vs 1516Strikes94.0 vs 25.9Takedowns5.0 vs 1.6Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.81Form1.0 vs 0.5
Jose AldoKenny Florian

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Jose Aldo(10 fights)Kenny Florian(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +3.1|Blue -3.1
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red -1.7|Blue +1.7
Grappler Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff
Red +42.0|Blue -42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jose AldoTargetKenny Florian

By target zone

38
41% acc · 75%
Head
11
14% acc · 28%
5
50% acc · 10%
Body
13
48% acc · 33%
8
67% acc · 16%
Leg
16
70% acc · 40%

By position

37
38% acc · 73%
Distance
25
24% acc · 63%
8
80% acc · 16%
Clinch
15
68% acc · 38%
6
75% acc · 12%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Jose Aldo rounds
1
even
2
Kenny Florian rounds
Round 1Kenny Florian edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:42Control
Round 2Kenny Florian edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:15Control
Round 3Jose Aldo edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control2:21
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:24Control
Round 4Even round
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:30
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:53Control
Round 5Jose Aldo edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control3:01
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:54Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
51 / 115
Sig Strikes
40 / 128
44.2%
Sig Str %
30.6%
66 / 131
Total Strikes
69 / 165
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 19
—
TD %
2.8%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
5:52
Ctrl Time
6:08

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Kenny Florian9 / 2114 / 271 / 70
1Jose Aldo7 / 1613 / 220 / 00
2Kenny Florian11 / 3911 / 390 / 20
2Jose Aldo9 / 3010 / 310 / 00
3Kenny Florian3 / 179 / 260 / 20
3Jose Aldo16 / 2721 / 320 / 00
4Jose Aldo12 / 2513 / 260 / 00
4Kenny Florian9 / 2516 / 330 / 60
5Kenny Florian8 / 2619 / 400 / 20
5Jose Aldo7 / 179 / 200 / 00

Jose Aldo

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights23

Kenny Florian

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4