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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Jose Aldo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1504

Jose AldovsJonathan MartinezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · Saturday, May 4, 2024Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Jose Aldo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJose Aldo: StrikervsJonathan Martinez: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Jonathan Martinez wins(54.7%)

Actual result: Jose Aldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jonathan Martinez at -166 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jose Aldo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jose Aldo has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Martinez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jose Aldo

Red Corner

Jonathan Martinez

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-166

(62%)

1493

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jose AldoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 21

vs Rob Font · Dec 21

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22

vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25

latest

Jonathan Martinez

oldest →

vs Vince Morales · May 22

KOvs Cub Swanson · Oct 22

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Mar 23

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Oct 23

vs Marcus McGhee · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jose AldoMetricJonathan Martinez

3.65

Strikes / min

4.44

3.81

Strikes absorbed / min

4.09

60%

Strike defense

56%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

0.38

92%

Takedown defense

68%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.16evenly matched on net striking+0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jose AldoJonathan Martinez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jose Aldo(10 fights)Jonathan Martinez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.8|Blue +10.8

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +420.0|Blue -420.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jose AldoTargetJonathan Martinez

By target zone

43% acc · 53%

Head

38% acc · 69%

79% acc · 34%

Body

60% acc · 17%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

53% acc · 91%

Distance

43% acc · 96%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jose Aldo rounds

even

Jonathan Martinez rounds

Round 1Jose Aldo edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jose Aldo edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:20Control

Round 3Jose Aldo edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control1:45

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

77 / 139

Sig Strikes

52 / 118

55%

Sig Str %

43.3%

101 / 174

Total Strikes

80 / 151

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 2

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:45

Ctrl Time

1:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jonathan Martinez	15 / 34	16 / 35	0 / 1
1	Jose Aldo	17 / 46	17 / 46	0 / 0
2	Jonathan Martinez	14 / 38	20 / 44	0 / 1
2	Jose Aldo	30 / 50	30 / 51	0 / 0
3	Jonathan Martinez	23 / 46	44 / 72	0 / 0
3	Jose Aldo	30 / 43	54 / 77	1 / 2

Jose Aldo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights23

Jonathan Martinez

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15