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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jose Aldo won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1493

Elo1473

Jose AldovsJeremy StephensUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · Saturday, July 28, 2018Calgary, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Jose Aldo won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:19

Style matchupJose Aldo: StrikervsJeremy Stephens: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Jose Aldo wins(69.8%)

Actual result: Jose Aldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jose Aldo at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Jose Aldo has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jose Aldo

Red Corner

Jeremy Stephens

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1493

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jose AldoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rob Font · Dec 21

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22

vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24

vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25

latest

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19

KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21

vs Mason Jones · May 25

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jose AldoMetricJeremy Stephens

3.65

Strikes / min

3.13

3.81

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

60%

Strike defense

57%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

1.10

92%

Takedown defense

61%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.16evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jose AldoJeremy Stephens

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jose Aldo(10 fights)Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.7|Blue -20.7

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jose AldoTargetJeremy Stephens

By target zone

38% acc · 72%

Head

29% acc · 80%

100% acc · 10%

Body

67% acc · 10%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

39% acc · 55%

Distance

31% acc · 80%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

50% acc · 20%

57% acc · 41%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jose Aldo rounds

even

Jeremy Stephens rounds

Round 1Jose Aldo edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:24

Knockdowns1

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 63

Sig Strikes

20 / 60

46%

Sig Str %

33%

29 / 63

Total Strikes

20 / 60

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:24

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jeremy Stephens	20 / 60	20 / 60	0 / 0	0
1	Jose Aldo	29 / 63	29 / 63	0 / 0	0

Jose Aldo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights23

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27