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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Jose Aldo won · U-DEC R5

Elo1493

Elo1441

Jose AldovsFrankie EdgarUFC Prediction Result

UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · Saturday, July 9, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jose Aldo won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJose Aldo: StrikervsFrankie Edgar: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Frankie Edgar wins(65.3%)

Actual result: Jose Aldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Frankie Edgar at -140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Frankie Edgar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jose Aldo has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Jose Aldo

Red Corner

Frankie Edgar

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1493

Elo

1441

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jose AldoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rob Font · Dec 21

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22

vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24

vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25

latest

Frankie EdgarL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Dec 19

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 20

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Feb 21

KOvs Marlon Vera · Nov 21

KOvs Chris Gutierrez · Nov 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jose AldoMetricFrankie Edgar

3.65

Strikes / min

3.77

3.81

Strikes absorbed / min

2.82

60%

Strike defense

65%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

2.29

92%

Takedown defense

65%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.16Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap+0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jose AldoFrankie Edgar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jose Aldo(10 fights)Frankie Edgar(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +52.6|Blue -52.6

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jose AldoTargetFrankie Edgar

By target zone

39% acc · 85%

Head

20% acc · 53%

57% acc · 10%

Body

56% acc · 18%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

88% acc · 29%

By position

42% acc · 99%

Distance

28% acc · 91%

50% acc · 1%

Clinch

70% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jose Aldo rounds

even

Frankie Edgar rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control1:11

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Frankie Edgar edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Jose Aldo edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

80 / 192

Sig Strikes

79 / 264

41.4%

Sig Str %

29.6%

81 / 193

Total Strikes

81 / 267

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 11

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:11

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Frankie Edgar	14 / 53	14 / 53	0 / 1
1	Jose Aldo	14 / 40	14 / 40	0 / 0
2	Frankie Edgar	14 / 54	14 / 54	0 / 5
2	Jose Aldo	14 / 32	14 / 32	0 / 0
3	Frankie Edgar	21 / 49	23 / 52	0 / 3
3	Jose Aldo	17 / 41	18 / 42	0 / 0
4	Jose Aldo	16 / 39	16 / 39	0 / 0
4	Frankie Edgar	20 / 53	20 / 53	0 / 1
5	Frankie Edgar	10 / 55	10 / 55	0 / 1
5	Jose Aldo	19 / 40	19 / 40	0 / 0

Jose Aldo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights23

Frankie Edgar

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22