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Featherweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Conor McGregor won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1493
Jose Aldo
Elo1474
Conor McGregor editorial illustration

Jose AldovsConor McGregorUFC Prediction Result

UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor · Saturday, December 12, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Conor McGregor won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:13

Style matchupJose Aldo: StrikervsConor McGregor: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Jose Aldo wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Conor McGregor wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jose Aldo at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Jose Aldo has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Conor McGregor (53.5%).
  • Conor McGregor has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jose Aldo
Red Corner
VS
Conor McGregor
Blue Corner
-115
(53%)
Vegas Odds
-105
(51%)
1493
Elo
1474
39
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'7"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jose AldoL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Rob Font · Dec 21
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22
W
vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24
L
vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24
L
vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25
latest
Conor McGregorL3 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Oct 18
W
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jan 20
L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jan 21
L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 21
L
KOvs Max Holloway · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jose AldoMetricConor McGregor
3.65
Strikes / min
5.32
3.81
Strikes absorbed / min
4.66
60%
Strike defense
54%
0.47
TDs / 15 min
0.67
92%
Takedown defense
66%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.16evenly matched on net striking+0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1610 vs 1600Strikes61.1 vs 35.2Takedowns1.7 vs 0.8Sub Atts0.43 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 1.0
Jose AldoConor McGregor

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
Jose Aldo(10 fights)Conor McGregor(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +19.2|Blue -19.2
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +1.8|Blue -1.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +259.0|Blue -259.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jose AldoTargetConor McGregor

By target zone

1
33% acc · 100%
Head
4
100% acc · 80%
0
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 20%

By position

1
33% acc · 100%
Distance
3
75% acc · 60%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
2
100% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jose Aldo rounds
0
even
1
Conor McGregor rounds
Round 1Conor McGregor edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
1 / 3
Sig Strikes
5 / 6
33%
Sig Str %
83%
1 / 3
Total Strikes
5 / 6
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Conor McGregor5 / 65 / 60 / 00
1Jose Aldo1 / 31 / 30 / 00

Jose Aldo

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights23

Conor McGregor

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights15