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Featherweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Jose Aldo won · KO/TKO R4
Elo1493
Jose Aldo
Elo1474
Chan Sung Jung

Jose AldovsChan Sung JungUFC Prediction Result

UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung · Saturday, August 3, 2013Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Jose Aldo won

KO/TKO · Round 4 · 2:00

Style matchupJose Aldo: StrikervsChan Sung Jung: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Jose Aldo wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Jose Aldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jose Aldo at -875 American odds

+$11 profit

$111 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jose Aldo has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jose Aldo
Red Corner
VS
Chan Sung Jung
Blue Corner
-875
(90%)
Vegas Odds
+685
(13%)
1493
Elo
1474
39
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'7"
177.8 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jose AldoL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Rob Font · Dec 21
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22
W
vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24
L
vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24
L
vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25
latest
Chan Sung JungL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Frankie Edgar · Dec 19
L
vs Brian Ortega · Oct 20
W
vs Dan Ige · Jun 21
L
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Apr 22
L
KOvs Max Holloway · Aug 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jose AldoMetricChan Sung Jung
3.65
Strikes / min
3.93
3.81
Strikes absorbed / min
4.52
60%
Strike defense
52%
0.47
TDs / 15 min
0.70
92%
Takedown defense
72%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.16evenly matched on net striking-0.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1563 vs 1549Strikes58.0 vs 36.7Takedowns1.3 vs 1.7Sub Atts0.25 vs 1.33Form1.0 vs 1.0
Jose AldoChan Sung Jung

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Jose Aldo(10 fights)Chan Sung Jung(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +19.5|Blue -19.5
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +2.4|Blue -2.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -263.0|Blue +263.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jose AldoTargetChan Sung Jung

By target zone

24
31% acc · 75%
Head
13
12% acc · 76%
7
88% acc · 22%
Body
2
40% acc · 12%
1
50% acc · 3%
Leg
2
33% acc · 12%

By position

28
36% acc · 88%
Distance
14
13% acc · 82%
0
Clinch
3
75% acc · 18%
4
44% acc · 13%
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Jose Aldo rounds
0
even
0
Chan Sung Jung rounds
Round 1Jose Aldo edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control0:02
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Jose Aldo edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control1:07
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Jose Aldo edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns2
Control3:34
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 4Jose Aldo edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control0:17
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
32 / 87
Sig Strikes
17 / 117
34.3%
Sig Str %
16%
43 / 99
Total Strikes
42 / 145
5 / 6
TDs
0 / 0
91.5%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
5:00
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chan Sung Jung3 / 373 / 370 / 00
1Jose Aldo6 / 226 / 221 / 10
2Jose Aldo13 / 2818 / 341 / 10
2Chan Sung Jung3 / 3810 / 460 / 00
3Chan Sung Jung8 / 2526 / 450 / 00
3Jose Aldo3 / 137 / 172 / 30
4Chan Sung Jung3 / 173 / 170 / 00
4Jose Aldo10 / 2412 / 261 / 10

Jose Aldo

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights23

Chan Sung Jung

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights12