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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Jose Aldo won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1493

Elo1491

Jose AldovsChad MendesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes · Saturday, January 14, 2012Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Jose Aldo won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:59

Style matchupJose Aldo: StrikervsChad Mendes: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Jose Aldo wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Jose Aldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jose Aldo at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Jose Aldo has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jose Aldo

Red Corner

Chad Mendes

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1493

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jose AldoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rob Font · Dec 21

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22

vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24

vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25

latest

Chad Mendes

oldest →

KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Apr 15

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 15

KOvs Frankie Edgar · Dec 15

KOvs Myles Jury · Jul 18

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jose AldoMetricChad Mendes

3.65

Strikes / min

2.78

3.81

Strikes absorbed / min

2.35

60%

Strike defense

67%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

4.13

92%

Takedown defense

100%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.16evenly matched on net striking+0.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jose AldoChad Mendes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jose Aldo(10 fights)Chad Mendes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jose AldoTargetChad Mendes

By target zone

43% acc · 55%

Head

11% acc · 8%

100% acc · 9%

Body

100% acc · 8%

50% acc · 36%

Leg

85% acc · 85%

By position

39% acc · 64%

Distance

47% acc · 69%

50% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 31%

100% acc · 27%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jose Aldo rounds

even

Chad Mendes rounds

Round 1Jose Aldo edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:55Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 23

Sig Strikes

13 / 23

47%

Sig Str %

56%

15 / 27

Total Strikes

18 / 28

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 7

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chad Mendes	13 / 23	18 / 28	0 / 7	0
1	Jose Aldo	11 / 23	15 / 27	0 / 0	0

Jose Aldo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights23

Chad Mendes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14