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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Volkanovski won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1521

Jose AldovsAlexander VolkanovskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · Saturday, May 11, 2019Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Alexander Volkanovski won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJose Aldo: StrikervsAlexander Volkanovski: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski wins(68.0%)

Actual result: Alexander Volkanovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Volkanovski at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jose Aldo has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jose Aldo

Red Corner

Alexander Volkanovski

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1493

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jose AldoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rob Font · Dec 21

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22

vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24

vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · May 25

latest

Alexander VolkanovskiW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 23

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Oct 23

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Apr 25

vs Diego Lopes · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jose AldoMetricAlexander Volkanovski

3.65

Strikes / min

5.99

3.81

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

60%

Strike defense

58%

0.47

TDs / 15 min

1.63

92%

Takedown defense

68%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.16Δ 2.84 — meaningful gap+2.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jose AldoAlexander Volkanovski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jose Aldo(10 fights)Alexander Volkanovski(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -27.4|Blue +27.4

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jose AldoTargetAlexander Volkanovski

By target zone

30% acc · 66%

Head

30% acc · 29%

58% acc · 24%

Body

71% acc · 18%

75% acc · 10%

Leg

85% acc · 53%

By position

34% acc · 90%

Distance

46% acc · 71%

100% acc · 10%

Clinch

97% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jose Aldo rounds

even

Alexander Volkanovski rounds

Round 1Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 2Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:07

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:08Control

Round 3Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:48Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 79

Sig Strikes

95 / 176

36.3%

Sig Str %

52.7%

39 / 90

Total Strikes

129 / 215

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 3

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

4:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alexander Volkanovski	20 / 49	22 / 51	0 / 1
1	Jose Aldo	8 / 23	8 / 23	0 / 0
2	Alexander Volkanovski	39 / 66	46 / 74	0 / 0
2	Jose Aldo	12 / 33	19 / 41	0 / 1
3	Alexander Volkanovski	36 / 61	61 / 90	0 / 2
3	Jose Aldo	9 / 23	12 / 26	0 / 0

Jose Aldo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights23

Alexander Volkanovski

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18