Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Featherweight
3 Rounds
Aiemann Zahabi won · U-DEC R3
Elo1493
Jose Aldo
Elo1522

Jose AldovsAiemann ZahabiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · Saturday, May 10, 2025Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Aiemann Zahabi won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJose Aldo: StrikervsAiemann Zahabi: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Aiemann Zahabi wins(59.8%)

Actual result: Aiemann Zahabi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aiemann Zahabi at +160 American odds

+$160 profit

$260 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jose Aldo
Red Corner
VS
Aiemann Zahabi
Blue Corner
-190
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
1493
Elo
1522
39
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jose Aldo
oldest →
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 21
W
vs Rob Font · Dec 21
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 22
W
vs Jonathan Martinez · May 24
L
vs Mario Bautista · Oct 24
latest
Aiemann Zahabi
oldest →
W
KOvs Aoriqileng · Jun 23
W
vs Javid Basharat · Mar 24
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 24
W
vs Marlon Vera · Oct 25
L
KOvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jose AldoMetricAiemann Zahabi
3.65
Strikes / min
4.54
3.81
Strikes absorbed / min
4.08
60%
Strike defense
69%
0.47
TDs / 15 min
0.12
92%
Takedown defense
83%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.16evenly matched on net striking+0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1592 vs 1564Strikes3.6 vs 4.5Takedowns0.5 vs 0.1Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.00Form-0.1 vs 1.0
Jose AldoAiemann Zahabi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
Jose Aldo(10 fights)Aiemann Zahabi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -29.2|Blue +29.2
Recent Form
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Striker Score
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jose AldoTargetAiemann Zahabi

By target zone

48
36% acc · 71%
Head
79
47% acc · 80%
13
52% acc · 19%
Body
14
64% acc · 14%
7
100% acc · 10%
Leg
6
60% acc · 6%

By position

67
40% acc · 99%
Distance
66
44% acc · 67%
0
Clinch
8
73% acc · 8%
1
100% acc · 1%
Ground
25
68% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Jose Aldo rounds
1
even
1
Aiemann Zahabi rounds
Round 1Jose Aldo edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:00
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Aiemann Zahabi edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
52Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:38Control
0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
68 / 167
Sig Strikes
99 / 199
42.3%
Sig Str %
47.7%
71 / 170
Total Strikes
109 / 209
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
2:38

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Aiemann Zahabi21 / 4621 / 460 / 00
1Jose Aldo23 / 5923 / 590 / 00
2Aiemann Zahabi26 / 6626 / 660 / 00
2Jose Aldo25 / 7225 / 720 / 00
3Aiemann Zahabi52 / 8762 / 970 / 00
3Jose Aldo20 / 3623 / 390 / 10

Jose Aldo

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights23

Aiemann Zahabi

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights10