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FIGHTDETECTIVE
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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Jorge Rivera won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1490
Elo1351
Eric Schafer

Jorge RiveravsEric SchaferUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · Friday, January 20, 2012Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Jorge Rivera won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:31

Style matchupJorge Rivera: Well-roundedvsEric Schafer: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Jorge Rivera wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Jorge Rivera wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jorge Rivera at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jorge Rivera
Red Corner
VS
Eric Schafer
Blue Corner
+135
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-145
(59%)
1490
Elo
1351
54
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'3"
185.42 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jorge RiveraL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Nate Quarry · Mar 10
L
KOvs Michael Bisping · Feb 11
L
DECvs Costas Philippou · Aug 11
latest
Eric SchaferL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Jason Brilz · Mar 10
L
vs Aaron Simpson · Oct 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jorge RiveraMetricEric Schafer
3.16
Strikes / min
1.89
2.64
Strikes absorbed / min
3.38
54%
Strike defense
56%
0.84
TDs / 15 min
1.81
63%
Takedown defense
50%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.52Δ 2.01 — meaningful gap-1.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1481 vs 1467Strikes26.6 vs 16.9Takedowns0.5 vs 0.9Sub Atts0.07 vs 1.13Form-0.7 vs -1.0
Jorge RiveraEric Schafer

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Jorge Rivera(4 fights)Eric Schafer(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +138.9|Blue -138.9
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +63.0|Blue -63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jorge RiveraTargetEric Schafer

By target zone

6
35% acc · 100%
Head
3
50% acc · 50%
0
Body
1
100% acc · 17%
0
Leg
2
100% acc · 33%

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
1
25% acc · 17%
0
Clinch
0
6
67% acc · 100%
Ground
5
100% acc · 83%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Jorge Rivera rounds
0
even
1
Eric Schafer rounds
Round 1Eric Schafer edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:16
5Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:12Control
Round 2Jorge Rivera edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:42
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:24Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
6 / 17
Sig Strikes
6 / 9
23%
Sig Str %
60.5%
34 / 48
Total Strikes
47 / 57
0 / 0
TDs
2 / 5
—
TD %
25%
0
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
0:58
Ctrl Time
4:36

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Eric Schafer5 / 746 / 552 / 40
1Jorge Rivera0 / 43 / 70 / 00
2Eric Schafer1 / 21 / 20 / 10
2Jorge Rivera6 / 1331 / 410 / 00

Jorge Rivera

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4

Eric Schafer

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights3