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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jorge Masvidal won · U-DEC R3

Elo1456

Elo1353

Jorge MasvidalvsPat HealyUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne · Saturday, April 19, 2014Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Jorge Masvidal won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJorge Masvidal: Well-roundedvsPat Healy: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Pat Healy wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Jorge Masvidal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Pat Healy at +245 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Pat Healy enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jorge Masvidal has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jorge Masvidal has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jorge Masvidal

Red Corner

Pat Healy

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1456

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jorge MasvidalL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Diaz · Nov 19

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21

vs Colby Covington · Mar 22

vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23

latest

Pat HealyL3 streak

oldest →

vs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Sep 13

vs Bobby Green · Dec 13

vs Gleison Tibau · Jul 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jorge MasvidalMetricPat Healy

4.05

Strikes / min

2.57

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

64%

Strike defense

50%

1.38

TDs / 15 min

3.08

72%

Takedown defense

55%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00evenly matched on net striking0.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jorge MasvidalPat Healy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)Pat Healy(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +102.9|Blue -102.9

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +38.0|Blue -38.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jorge MasvidalTargetPat Healy

By target zone

66% acc · 65%

Head

11% acc · 22%

87% acc · 19%

Body

60% acc · 47%

92% acc · 16%

Leg

100% acc · 31%

By position

68% acc · 72%

Distance

24% acc · 63%

86% acc · 26%

Clinch

67% acc · 38%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jorge Masvidal rounds

even

Pat Healy rounds

Round 1Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:10

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:58Control

Round 2Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:22

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:36Control

Round 3Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control2:44

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 95

Sig Strikes

32 / 100

71.3%

Sig Str %

31%

105 / 132

Total Strikes

84 / 155

1 / 1

TDs

2 / 14

100%

TD %

11.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:16

Ctrl Time

5:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Pat Healy	13 / 40	18 / 45	1 / 7
1	Jorge Masvidal	26 / 38	42 / 55	0 / 0
2	Pat Healy	13 / 39	28 / 56	1 / 5
2	Jorge Masvidal	30 / 38	37 / 45	0 / 0
3	Pat Healy	6 / 21	38 / 54	0 / 2
3	Jorge Masvidal	13 / 19	26 / 32	1 / 1

Jorge Masvidal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights22

Pat Healy

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4