← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Lorenz Larkin won · S-DEC R3

Elo1456

Elo1491

Jorge MasvidalvsLorenz LarkinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · Sunday, May 29, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Lorenz Larkin won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJorge Masvidal: Well-roundedvsLorenz Larkin: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Jorge Masvidal wins(77.0%)

Actual result: Lorenz Larkin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jorge Masvidal at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Jorge Masvidal

Red Corner

Lorenz Larkin

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1456

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jorge MasvidalL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Diaz · Nov 19

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21

vs Colby Covington · Mar 22

vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23

latest

Lorenz Larkin

oldest →

vs Derek Brunson · Aug 14

KOvs John Howard · Jan 15

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jun 15

vs Albert Tumenov · Jan 16

KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jorge MasvidalMetricLorenz Larkin

4.05

Strikes / min

3.53

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

2.74

64%

Strike defense

63%

1.38

TDs / 15 min

0.27

72%

Takedown defense

79%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00evenly matched on net striking+0.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jorge MasvidalLorenz Larkin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)Lorenz Larkin(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -34.3|Blue +34.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jorge MasvidalTargetLorenz Larkin

By target zone

33% acc · 65%

Head

28% acc · 61%

67% acc · 17%

Body

64% acc · 16%

64% acc · 19%

Leg

63% acc · 23%

By position

31% acc · 65%

Distance

35% acc · 91%

85% acc · 35%

Clinch

50% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jorge Masvidal rounds

even

Lorenz Larkin rounds

Round 1Lorenz Larkin edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:40

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:23

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:41Control

Round 3Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control1:44

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:26Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 121

Sig Strikes

44 / 122

39%

Sig Str %

38%

60 / 133

Total Strikes

58 / 136

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:47

Ctrl Time

2:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lorenz Larkin	16 / 42	21 / 47	0 / 0	0
1	Jorge Masvidal	10 / 39	13 / 42	0 / 0	0
2	Lorenz Larkin	15 / 53	19 / 57	1 / 1	0
2	Jorge Masvidal	24 / 51	25 / 52	0 / 0	0
3	Lorenz Larkin	13 / 27	18 / 32	0 / 1	0
3	Jorge Masvidal	14 / 31	22 / 39	1 / 2	2

Jorge Masvidal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights22

Lorenz Larkin

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10