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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jorge Masvidal won · U-DEC R3

Elo1456

Elo1493

Jorge MasvidalvsJames KrauseUFC Prediction Result

UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · Saturday, September 27, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jorge Masvidal won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJorge Masvidal: Well-roundedvsJames Krause: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jorge Masvidal wins(68.0%)

Actual result: Jorge Masvidal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jorge Masvidal at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Jorge Masvidal

Red Corner

James Krause

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1456

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jorge MasvidalL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Diaz · Nov 19

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21

vs Colby Covington · Mar 22

vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23

latest

James Krause

oldest →

vs Alex White · Jan 18

KOvs Warlley Alves · Aug 18

KOvs Sergio Moraes · Nov 19

vs Trevin Giles · Feb 20

vs Claudio Silva · Oct 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jorge MasvidalMetricJames Krause

4.05

Strikes / min

4.79

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

64%

Strike defense

61%

1.38

TDs / 15 min

0.96

72%

Takedown defense

59%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00evenly matched on net striking+0.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jorge MasvidalJames Krause

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)James Krause(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -36.7|Blue +36.7

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jorge MasvidalTargetJames Krause

By target zone

35% acc · 61%

Head

38% acc · 76%

79% acc · 33%

Body

44% acc · 14%

44% acc · 6%

Leg

60% acc · 10%

By position

39% acc · 78%

Distance

40% acc · 98%

81% acc · 19%

Clinch

33% acc · 2%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jorge Masvidal rounds

even

James Krause rounds

Round 1James Krause edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:03

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 2Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns1

Control1:17

Knockdowns1

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control1:42

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 157

Sig Strikes

58 / 145

42.3%

Sig Str %

39%

85 / 176

Total Strikes

61 / 148

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 5

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:02

Ctrl Time

1:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	James Krause	23 / 61	25 / 63	0 / 1
1	Jorge Masvidal	20 / 56	24 / 61	0 / 0
2	James Krause	23 / 48	23 / 48	0 / 1
2	Jorge Masvidal	34 / 60	37 / 64	1 / 2
3	James Krause	12 / 36	13 / 37	0 / 3
3	Jorge Masvidal	15 / 41	24 / 51	1 / 2

Jorge Masvidal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights22

James Krause

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13