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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jorge Masvidal won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1456

Elo1374

Jorge MasvidalvsCezar FerreiraUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · Sunday, July 12, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jorge Masvidal won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:22

Style matchupJorge Masvidal: Well-roundedvsCezar Ferreira: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jorge Masvidal wins(60.9%)

Actual result: Jorge Masvidal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jorge Masvidal at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jorge Masvidal is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Cezar Ferreira has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Jorge Masvidal has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Cezar Ferreira (53.5%).
Cezar Ferreira has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jorge Masvidal

Red Corner

Cezar Ferreira

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1456

Elo

1374

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'1"

187.96 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jorge MasvidalL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Diaz · Nov 19

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21

vs Colby Covington · Mar 22

vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23

latest

Cezar FerreiraL2 streak

oldest →

vs Elias Theodorou · Feb 17

vs Nate Marquardt · Nov 17

SUBvs Karl Roberson · May 18

vs Ian Heinisch · Nov 18

vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jorge MasvidalMetricCezar Ferreira

4.05

Strikes / min

1.90

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

64%

Strike defense

53%

1.38

TDs / 15 min

2.69

72%

Takedown defense

84%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jorge MasvidalCezar Ferreira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)Cezar Ferreira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +81.9|Blue -81.9

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -41.0|Blue +41.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jorge MasvidalTargetCezar Ferreira

By target zone

47% acc · 67%

Head

50% acc · 71%

75% acc · 25%

Body

33% acc · 29%

50% acc · 8%

Leg

0% acc

By position

33% acc · 42%

Distance

38% acc · 86%

75% acc · 25%

Clinch

50% acc · 14%

100% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jorge Masvidal rounds

even

Cezar Ferreira rounds

Round 1Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:30Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 23

Sig Strikes

7 / 18

52%

Sig Str %

38%

14 / 25

Total Strikes

9 / 20

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

1:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cezar Ferreira	7 / 18	9 / 20	1 / 3	0
1	Jorge Masvidal	12 / 23	14 / 25	0 / 0	0

Jorge Masvidal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights22

Cezar Ferreira

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15