← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jorge Masvidal won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1456

Elo1377

Jorge MasvidalvsBen AskrenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Saturday, July 6, 2019Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jorge Masvidal won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:05

Style matchupJorge Masvidal: Well-roundedvsBen Askren: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ben Askren wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Jorge Masvidal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ben Askren at -220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jorge Masvidal is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Ben Askren has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Jorge Masvidal has 28pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jorge Masvidal has 72pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jorge Masvidal

Red Corner

Ben Askren

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1456

Elo

1377

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jorge MasvidalL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Diaz · Nov 19

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21

vs Colby Covington · Mar 22

vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23

latest

Ben Askren

oldest →

SUBvs Robbie Lawler · Mar 19

SUBvs Demian Maia · Oct 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jorge MasvidalMetricBen Askren

4.05

Strikes / min

3.64

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

5.66

64%

Strike defense

36%

1.38

TDs / 15 min

4.33

72%

Takedown defense

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.00Δ 3.02 — meaningful gap-2.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jorge MasvidalBen Askren

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)Ben Askren(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +79.0|Blue -79.0

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +3.0|Blue -3.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jorge MasvidalTargetBen Askren

By target zone

100% acc · 100%

Head

Body

Leg

By position

100% acc · 33%

Distance

Clinch

100% acc · 67%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jorge Masvidal rounds

even

Ben Askren rounds

Round 1Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 3

Sig Strikes

0 / 0

100%

Sig Str %

—

3 / 3

Total Strikes

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ben Askren	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0
1	Jorge Masvidal	3 / 3	3 / 3	0 / 0	0

Jorge Masvidal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights22

Ben Askren

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3