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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Christos Giagos won · SUB R1
Elo1354
Elo1495
Christos Giagos

Jorge de OliveiravsChristos GiagosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · Saturday, March 21, 2015Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Christos Giagos won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:12

Model Prediction: Jorge de Oliveira wins(65.0%)

Actual result: Christos Giagos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jorge de Oliveira at +175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Christos Giagos has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jorge de Oliveira
Red Corner
VS
Christos Giagos
Blue Corner
+175
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-210
(68%)
1354
Elo
1495
46
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jorge de Oliveira
oldest →
L
vs Dhiego Lima · Nov 14
latest
Christos GiagosL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Sep 21
L
SUBvs Thiago Moises · Jun 22
W
KOvs Ricky Glenn · Apr 23
L
SUBvs Daniel Zellhuber · Sep 23
L
KOvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jorge de OliveiraMetricChristos Giagos
1.26
Strikes / min
3.03
4.84
Strikes absorbed / min
3.21
48%
Strike defense
50%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
2.84
22%
Takedown defense
52%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-3.58Δ 3.40 — meaningful gap-0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1481 vs 1482Strikes23.0 vs 4.0Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs -1.0
Jorge de OliveiraChristos Giagos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Jorge de Oliveira(2 fights)Christos Giagos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -140.3|Blue +140.3
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -14.0|Blue +14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jorge de OliveiraTargetChristos Giagos

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
18
53% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
0% acc
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
2
50% acc · 11%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
16
53% acc · 89%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jorge de Oliveira rounds
0
even
1
Christos Giagos rounds
Round 1Christos Giagos edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:41Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 4
Sig Strikes
18 / 34
0%
Sig Str %
52%
11 / 16
Total Strikes
37 / 54
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
2:41

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Christos Giagos18 / 3437 / 541 / 11
1Jorge de Oliveira0 / 411 / 160 / 00

Jorge de Oliveira

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach—
Fights2

Christos Giagos

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights14