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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Zac Pauga won · U-DEC R3

Elo1449

Elo1492

Jordan WrightvsZac PaugaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Saturday, February 18, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Zac Pauga won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJordan Wright: WrestlervsZac Pauga: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Jordan Wright wins(56.2%)

Actual result: Zac Pauga wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jordan Wright at +245 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jordan Wright enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Zac Pauga enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jordan Wright is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Zac Pauga has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Zac Pauga has 27pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Jordan Wright

Red Corner

Zac Pauga

Blue Corner

+245

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-295

(75%)

1449

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jordan WrightL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Nov 20

KOvs Jamie Pickett · May 21

KOvs Bruno Silva · Dec 21

SUBvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Apr 22

KOvs Dusko Todorovic · Oct 22

latest

Zac PaugaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mohammed Usman · Aug 22

vs Modestas Bukauskas · Jun 23

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jordan WrightMetricZac Pauga

4.10

Strikes / min

4.46

6.03

Strikes absorbed / min

2.73

31%

Strike defense

58%

2.09

TDs / 15 min

0.38

100%

Takedown defense

100%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.93Δ 3.66 — meaningful gap+1.73

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jordan WrightZac Pauga

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jordan Wright(7 fights)Zac Pauga(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -43.5|Blue +43.5

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jordan WrightTargetZac Pauga

By target zone

27% acc · 52%

Head

57% acc · 53%

62% acc · 45%

Body

88% acc · 36%

50% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

28% acc · 62%

Distance

50% acc · 36%

85% acc · 38%

Clinch

88% acc · 64%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jordan Wright rounds

even

Zac Pauga rounds

Round 1Zac Pauga edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:32Control

Round 2Zac Pauga edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:10

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:27Control

Round 3Zac Pauga edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:03

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 78

Sig Strikes

59 / 85

46.3%

Sig Str %

70.3%

199 / 261

Total Strikes

85 / 114

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 6

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:13

Ctrl Time

8:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Zac Pauga	22 / 26	43 / 47	0 / 1
1	Jordan Wright	5 / 7	55 / 64	0 / 0
2	Zac Pauga	15 / 22	20 / 30	0 / 3
2	Jordan Wright	7 / 19	105 / 122	0 / 1
3	Zac Pauga	22 / 37	22 / 37	0 / 2
3	Jordan Wright	17 / 52	39 / 75	0 / 0

Jordan Wright

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7

Zac Pauga

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4