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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Marc-Andre Barriault won · SUB R1

Elo1449

Elo1478

Jordan WrightvsMarc-Andre BarriaultUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · Saturday, April 23, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marc-Andre Barriault won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:36

Style matchupJordan Wright: WrestlervsMarc-Andre Barriault: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Marc-Andre Barriault wins(54.4%)

Actual result: Marc-Andre Barriault wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marc-Andre Barriault at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jordan Wright enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Marc-Andre Barriault is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Jordan Wright has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Marc-Andre Barriault has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jordan Wright has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jordan Wright

Red Corner

Marc-Andre Barriault

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1449

Elo

1478

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jordan WrightL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Nov 20

KOvs Jamie Pickett · May 21

KOvs Bruno Silva · Dec 21

KOvs Dusko Todorovic · Oct 22

vs Zac Pauga · Feb 23

latest

Marc-Andre BarriaultL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joe Pyfer · Jun 24

KOvs Dustin Stoltzfus · Nov 24

KOvs Bruno Silva · May 25

vs Shara Magomedov · Jul 25

vs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jordan WrightMetricMarc-Andre Barriault

4.10

Strikes / min

5.65

6.03

Strikes absorbed / min

5.94

31%

Strike defense

49%

2.09

TDs / 15 min

0.34

100%

Takedown defense

68%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.93Δ 1.64 — meaningful gap-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jordan WrightMarc-Andre Barriault

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jordan Wright(7 fights)Marc-Andre Barriault(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -29.2|Blue +29.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jordan WrightTargetMarc-Andre Barriault

By target zone

67% acc · 17%

Head

73% acc · 85%

100% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 15%

100% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

86% acc · 50%

Distance

40% acc · 15%

100% acc · 33%

Clinch

90% acc · 69%

100% acc · 17%

Ground

100% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jordan Wright rounds

even

Marc-Andre Barriault rounds

Round 1Jordan Wright edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control1:32

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 13

Sig Strikes

13 / 17

92%

Sig Str %

76%

16 / 17

Total Strikes

17 / 21

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:32

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marc-Andre Barriault	13 / 17	17 / 21	0 / 0	1
1	Jordan Wright	12 / 13	16 / 17	2 / 4	0

Jordan Wright

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7

Marc-Andre Barriault

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17