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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Gregor Gillespie won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1491

Elo1494

Jordan RinaldivsGregor GillespieUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · Saturday, January 27, 2018Charlotte, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Gregor Gillespie won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:46

Style matchupJordan Rinaldi: Submission grapplervsGregor Gillespie: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Gregor Gillespie wins(58.8%)

Actual result: Gregor Gillespie wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gregor Gillespie at -550 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gregor Gillespie has 80pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jordan Rinaldi

Red Corner

Gregor Gillespie

Blue Corner

+425

(19%)

Vegas Odds

-550

(85%)

1491

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jordan Rinaldi

oldest →

vs Abel Trujillo · May 16

SUBvs Alvaro Herrera · Aug 17

vs Jason Knight · Nov 18

vs Arnold Allen · Mar 19

latest

Gregor Gillespie

oldest →

SUBvs Jason Gonzalez · Sep 17

SUBvs Vinc Pichel · Jun 18

KOvs Yancy Medeiros · Jan 19

KOvs Kevin Lee · Nov 19

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jordan RinaldiMetricGregor Gillespie

1.56

Strikes / min

3.74

2.32

Strikes absorbed / min

2.30

59%

Strike defense

57%

1.45

TDs / 15 min

6.86

20%

Takedown defense

100%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.76Δ 2.20 — meaningful gap+1.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jordan RinaldiGregor Gillespie

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jordan Rinaldi(5 fights)Gregor Gillespie(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.3|Blue +2.3

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jordan RinaldiTargetGregor Gillespie

By target zone

36% acc · 71%

Head

61% acc · 91%

100% acc · 14%

Body

50% acc · 3%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

44% acc · 100%

Distance

26% acc · 15%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

80% acc · 82%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jordan Rinaldi rounds

even

Gregor Gillespie rounds

Round 1Gregor Gillespie edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:42Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 16

Sig Strikes

34 / 55

43%

Sig Str %

61%

7 / 16

Total Strikes

42 / 63

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gregor Gillespie	34 / 55	42 / 63	1 / 2	0
1	Jordan Rinaldi	7 / 16	7 / 16	0 / 0	0

Jordan Rinaldi

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5

Gregor Gillespie

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8