Welterweight

3 Rounds

Thiago Alves won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1491

Elo1379

Jordan MeinvsThiago AlvesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz · Saturday, January 31, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Thiago Alves won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:39

Style matchupJordan Mein: Well-roundedvsThiago Alves: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Jordan Mein wins(56.2%)

Actual result: Thiago Alves wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jordan Mein at -140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jordan Mein

Red Corner

Thiago Alves

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1491

Elo

1379

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jordan MeinW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mike Pyle · Aug 14

vs Emil Meek · Dec 16

vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 17

vs Erick Silva · Dec 17

vs Alex Morono · Jul 18

latest

Thiago AlvesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Curtis Millender · Feb 18

vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Sep 18

vs Max Griffin · Feb 19

vs Laureano Staropoli · May 19

SUBvs Tim Means · Dec 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jordan MeinMetricThiago Alves

3.35

Strikes / min

3.73

2.55

Strikes absorbed / min

3.42

69%

Strike defense

62%

1.56

TDs / 15 min

0.71

66%

Takedown defense

63%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jordan MeinThiago Alves

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jordan Mein(9 fights)Thiago Alves(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +112.6|Blue -112.6

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -126.0|Blue +126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jordan MeinTargetThiago Alves

By target zone

34% acc · 81%

Head

25% acc · 57%

80% acc · 11%

Body

60% acc · 13%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

58% acc · 30%

By position

37% acc · 92%

Distance

29% acc · 70%

60% acc · 8%

Clinch

20% acc · 4%

Ground

75% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jordan Mein rounds

even

Thiago Alves rounds

Round 1Jordan Mein edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Thiago Alves edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 96

Sig Strikes

23 / 68

19%

Sig Str %

44%

37 / 96

Total Strikes

24 / 69

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Thiago Alves	15 / 55	16 / 56	0 / 0
1	Jordan Mein	37 / 95	37 / 95	0 / 0
2	Thiago Alves	8 / 13	8 / 13	0 / 0
2	Jordan Mein	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0

Jordan Mein

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9

Thiago Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15