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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jordan Leavitt won · U-DEC R3

Elo1506

Elo1513

Jordan LeavittvsYadier del ValleUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Saturday, February 21, 2026Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Jordan Leavitt won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJordan Leavitt: WrestlervsYadier del Valle: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Yadier del Valle wins(54.6%)

Actual result: Jordan Leavitt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yadier del Valle at -405 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yadier del Valle threatens submissions; Jordan Leavitt has lost 75% of fights by sub.
Yadier del Valle has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jordan Leavitt

Red Corner

Yadier del Valle

Blue Corner

+320

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-405

(80%)

1506

Elo

1513

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jordan Leavitt

oldest →

SUBvs Paddy Pimblett · Jul 22

KOvs Victor Martinez · Feb 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Nov 23

SUBvs Kurt Holobaugh · May 25

SUBvs Joanderson Brito · Jun 26

latest

Yadier del ValleW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Connor Matthews · May 25

SUBvs Isaac Dulgarian · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jordan LeavittMetricYadier del Valle

2.21

Strikes / min

4.05

1.59

Strikes absorbed / min

2.16

58%

Strike defense

55%

3.15

TDs / 15 min

1.23

30%

Takedown defense

58%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

2.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap+1.89

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jordan LeavittYadier del Valle

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jordan Leavitt(10 fights)Yadier del Valle(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.1|Blue +7.1

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +154.0|Blue -154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jordan LeavittTargetYadier del Valle

By target zone

39% acc · 41%

Head

15% acc · 31%

16% acc · 18%

Body

100% acc · 62%

88% acc · 41%

Leg

13% acc · 8%

By position

33% acc · 71%

Distance

19% acc · 54%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

56% acc · 29%

Ground

100% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jordan Leavitt rounds

even

Yadier del Valle rounds

Round 1Jordan Leavitt edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns3

Control4:04

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jordan Leavitt edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control3:02

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control0:51

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 45

Sig Strikes

13 / 42

37%

Sig Str %

32.7%

45 / 86

Total Strikes

76 / 112

4 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

41.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:57

Ctrl Time

2:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Yadier del Valle	3 / 7	32 / 38	0 / 0
1	Jordan Leavitt	7 / 14	20 / 33	3 / 4
2	Yadier del Valle	5 / 17	10 / 23	0 / 0
2	Jordan Leavitt	7 / 19	15 / 33	0 / 2
3	Yadier del Valle	5 / 18	34 / 51	0 / 0
3	Jordan Leavitt	3 / 12	10 / 20	1 / 2

Jordan Leavitt

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Yadier del Valle

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3