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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jordan Leavitt won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1506

Elo1491

Jordan LeavittvsVictor MartinezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Saturday, February 25, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jordan Leavitt won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:27

Style matchupJordan Leavitt: WrestlervsVictor Martinez: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jordan Leavitt wins(54.8%)

Actual result: Jordan Leavitt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jordan Leavitt at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Victor Martinez has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jordan Leavitt (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jordan Leavitt

Red Corner

Victor Martinez

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1506

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jordan Leavitt

oldest →

SUBvs Paddy Pimblett · Jul 22

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Nov 23

SUBvs Kurt Holobaugh · May 25

vs Yadier del Valle · Feb 26

SUBvs Joanderson Brito · Jun 26

latest

Victor Martinez

oldest →

KOvs Tom Nolan · May 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jordan LeavittMetricVictor Martinez

2.21

Strikes / min

7.94

1.59

Strikes absorbed / min

7.66

58%

Strike defense

53%

3.15

TDs / 15 min

0.70

30%

Takedown defense

80%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62evenly matched on net striking+0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jordan LeavittVictor Martinez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jordan Leavitt(10 fights)Victor Martinez(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +15.3|Blue -15.3

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jordan LeavittTargetVictor Martinez

By target zone

38% acc · 47%

Head

20% acc · 57%

60% acc · 35%

Body

0% acc

75% acc · 18%

Leg

43% acc · 43%

By position

36% acc · 47%

Distance

25% acc · 100%

71% acc · 29%

Clinch

67% acc · 24%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jordan Leavitt rounds

even

Victor Martinez rounds

Round 1Jordan Leavitt edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:46

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 35

Sig Strikes

7 / 28

48%

Sig Str %

25%

18 / 38

Total Strikes

9 / 31

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:46

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Victor Martinez	7 / 28	9 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Jordan Leavitt	17 / 35	18 / 38	0 / 2	0

Jordan Leavitt

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Victor Martinez

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights2