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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jordan Leavitt won · S-DEC R3

Elo1506

Elo1505

Jordan LeavittvsTrey OgdenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad · Saturday, April 16, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jordan Leavitt won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJordan Leavitt: WrestlervsTrey Ogden: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jordan Leavitt wins(67.5%)

Actual result: Jordan Leavitt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jordan Leavitt at +115 American odds

+$115 profit

$215 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Trey Ogden has 70pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jordan Leavitt (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jordan Leavitt

Red Corner

Trey Ogden

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1506

Elo

1505

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jordan Leavitt

oldest →

KOvs Victor Martinez · Feb 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Nov 23

SUBvs Kurt Holobaugh · May 25

vs Yadier del Valle · Feb 26

SUBvs Joanderson Brito · Jun 26

latest

Trey Ogden

oldest →

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Sep 22

vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 23

vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 24

vs Loik Radzhabov · Jul 24

vs Thiago Moises · Jan 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jordan LeavittMetricTrey Ogden

2.21

Strikes / min

3.20

1.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.49

58%

Strike defense

55%

3.15

TDs / 15 min

1.89

30%

Takedown defense

100%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62evenly matched on net striking-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jordan LeavittTrey Ogden

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jordan Leavitt(10 fights)Trey Ogden(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.2|Blue +49.2

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jordan LeavittTargetTrey Ogden

By target zone

29% acc · 9%

Head

22% acc · 24%

44% acc · 16%

Body

79% acc · 56%

88% acc · 75%

Leg

53% acc · 20%

By position

68% acc · 100%

Distance

44% acc · 93%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jordan Leavitt rounds

even

Trey Ogden rounds

Round 1Jordan Leavitt edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control2:20

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Jordan Leavitt edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 3Trey Ogden edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control2:57

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 105

Sig Strikes

41 / 90

58.7%

Sig Str %

49%

124 / 170

Total Strikes

130 / 182

0 / 3

TDs

1 / 4

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

5:17

Ctrl Time

2:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Trey Ogden	17 / 30	57 / 71	0 / 0	2
1	Jordan Leavitt	19 / 25	32 / 44	0 / 0	0
2	Trey Ogden	16 / 46	17 / 47	0 / 1	0
2	Jordan Leavitt	46 / 68	52 / 74	0 / 2	0
3	Trey Ogden	8 / 14	56 / 64	1 / 3	0
3	Jordan Leavitt	4 / 12	40 / 52	0 / 1	0

Jordan Leavitt

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Trey Ogden

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6