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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jordan Leavitt won · SUB R2

Elo1506

Elo1414

Jordan LeavittvsMatt SaylesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Saturday, December 18, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jordan Leavitt won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:05

Style matchupJordan Leavitt: WrestlervsMatt Sayles: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Jordan Leavitt wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Jordan Leavitt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jordan Leavitt at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Sayles threatens submissions; Jordan Leavitt has lost 75% of fights by sub.
Matt Sayles has 51pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jordan Leavitt (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jordan Leavitt

Red Corner

Matt Sayles

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1506

Elo

1414

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jordan Leavitt

oldest →

KOvs Victor Martinez · Feb 23

SUBvs Chase Hooper · Nov 23

SUBvs Kurt Holobaugh · May 25

vs Yadier del Valle · Feb 26

SUBvs Joanderson Brito · Jun 26

latest

Matt Sayles

oldest →

vs Sheymon Moraes · Aug 18

SUBvs Kyle Nelson · May 19

SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jordan LeavittMetricMatt Sayles

2.21

Strikes / min

4.83

1.59

Strikes absorbed / min

2.81

58%

Strike defense

61%

3.15

TDs / 15 min

0.36

30%

Takedown defense

81%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62Δ 1.40 — meaningful gap+2.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jordan LeavittMatt Sayles

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jordan Leavitt(10 fights)Matt Sayles(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +92.0|Blue -92.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Layoff

Red -546.0|Blue +546.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jordan LeavittTargetMatt Sayles

By target zone

33% acc · 44%

Head

14% acc · 15%

25% acc · 11%

Body

67% acc · 62%

100% acc · 44%

Leg

38% acc · 23%

By position

39% acc · 78%

Distance

38% acc · 100%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jordan Leavitt rounds

even

Matt Sayles rounds

Round 1Jordan Leavitt edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control2:44

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 2Matt Sayles edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:04

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:36Control

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 20

Sig Strikes

13 / 34

44.5%

Sig Str %

37.5%

22 / 37

Total Strikes

13 / 34

1 / 6

TDs

1 / 1

10%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:48

Ctrl Time

1:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Sayles	4 / 17	4 / 17	0 / 0	1
1	Jordan Leavitt	5 / 11	18 / 28	1 / 5	1
2	Matt Sayles	9 / 17	9 / 17	1 / 1	0
2	Jordan Leavitt	4 / 9	4 / 9	0 / 1	2

Jordan Leavitt

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Matt Sayles

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4