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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jordan Johnson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1363

Jordan JohnsonvsMarcel FortunaUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale · Friday, July 7, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jordan Johnson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJordan Johnson: WrestlervsMarcel Fortuna: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jordan Johnson wins(86.1%)

Actual result: Jordan Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jordan Johnson at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jordan Johnson enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Marcel Fortuna has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jordan Johnson has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jordan Johnson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jordan Johnson

Red Corner

Marcel Fortuna

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1491

Elo

1363

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

200.66 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jordan JohnsonW3 streak

oldest →

vs Henrique da Silva · Jan 17

vs Adam Milstead · Mar 18

SUBvs Adam Yandiev · Sep 18

latest

Marcel Fortuna

oldest →

KOvs Anthony Hamilton · Feb 17

vs Jake Collier · Nov 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jordan JohnsonMetricMarcel Fortuna

3.45

Strikes / min

3.83

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

4.52

53%

Strike defense

64%

3.25

TDs / 15 min

0.45

100%

Takedown defense

75%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.81Δ 1.50 — meaningful gap-0.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jordan JohnsonMarcel Fortuna

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jordan Johnson(4 fights)Marcel Fortuna(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +128.7|Blue -128.7

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jordan JohnsonTargetMarcel Fortuna

By target zone

30% acc · 93%

Head

38% acc · 53%

50% acc · 7%

Body

82% acc · 26%

0% acc

Leg

92% acc · 21%

By position

28% acc · 83%

Distance

51% acc · 96%

20% acc · 2%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

60% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jordan Johnson rounds

even

Marcel Fortuna rounds

Round 1Jordan Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control0:46

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Marcel Fortuna edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:40

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:24

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 139

Sig Strikes

53 / 103

30%

Sig Str %

51%

47 / 145

Total Strikes

62 / 112

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 3

27.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:50

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marcel Fortuna	12 / 24	12 / 24	0 / 0
1	Jordan Johnson	14 / 42	16 / 45	1 / 2
2	Marcel Fortuna	24 / 40	33 / 49	0 / 0
2	Jordan Johnson	13 / 44	15 / 46	1 / 3
3	Marcel Fortuna	17 / 39	17 / 39	0 / 3
3	Jordan Johnson	15 / 53	16 / 54	0 / 1

Jordan Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights4

Marcel Fortuna

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3