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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jordan Johnson won · S-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1369

Jordan JohnsonvsAdam MilsteadUFC Prediction Result

UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · Saturday, March 3, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jordan Johnson won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJordan Johnson: WrestlervsAdam Milstead: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Jordan Johnson wins(85.1%)

Actual result: Jordan Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jordan Johnson at -255 American odds

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jordan Johnson enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Jordan Johnson has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jordan Johnson has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Jordan Johnson

Red Corner

Adam Milstead

Blue Corner

-255

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+215

(32%)

1491

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jordan JohnsonW3 streak

oldest →

vs Henrique da Silva · Jan 17

vs Marcel Fortuna · Jul 17

SUBvs Adam Yandiev · Sep 18

latest

Adam Milstead

oldest →

KOvs Chris de la Rocha · May 16

KOvs Mike Rodriguez · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jordan JohnsonMetricAdam Milstead

3.45

Strikes / min

3.85

2.64

Strikes absorbed / min

4.79

53%

Strike defense

43%

3.25

TDs / 15 min

0.00

100%

Takedown defense

64%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.81Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap-0.94

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jordan JohnsonAdam Milstead

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jordan Johnson(4 fights)Adam Milstead(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +121.9|Blue -121.9

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -404.0|Blue +404.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jordan JohnsonTargetAdam Milstead

By target zone

50% acc · 75%

Head

39% acc · 81%

78% acc · 12%

Body

86% acc · 10%

89% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

56% acc · 97%

Distance

39% acc · 76%

40% acc · 3%

Clinch

68% acc · 22%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jordan Johnson rounds

even

Adam Milstead rounds

Round 1Jordan Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control1:50

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jordan Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control3:25

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control1:57

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 106

Sig Strikes

58 / 133

58.3%

Sig Str %

43.3%

176 / 239

Total Strikes

70 / 145

2 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

15%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:12

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Adam Milstead	20 / 53	22 / 55	0 / 0
1	Jordan Johnson	22 / 37	56 / 74	0 / 2
2	Adam Milstead	11 / 24	19 / 32	0 / 0
2	Jordan Johnson	15 / 21	83 / 100	1 / 4
3	Adam Milstead	27 / 56	29 / 58	0 / 0
3	Jordan Johnson	22 / 48	37 / 65	1 / 5

Jordan Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights4

Adam Milstead

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3