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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jordan Griffin won · SUB R2

Elo1399

Elo1480

Jordan GriffinvsTJ BrownUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, February 29, 2020Norfolk, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Jordan Griffin won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:38

Style matchupJordan Griffin: Submission grapplervsTJ Brown: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: TJ Brown wins(55.5%)

Actual result: Jordan Griffin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

TJ Brown at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jordan Griffin enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jordan Griffin threatens submissions; TJ Brown has lost 60% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors TJ Brown (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Jordan Griffin

Red Corner

TJ Brown

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1399

Elo

1480

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jordan GriffinL4 streak

oldest →

vs Dan Ige · Dec 18

vs Chas Skelly · Sep 19

vs Youssef Zalal · Jun 20

vs Luis Saldana · Apr 21

latest

TJ BrownL2 streak

oldest →

vs Charles Rosa · Jan 22

vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · Jun 22

SUBvs Erik Silva · Dec 22

SUBvs Bill Algeo · Apr 23

SUBvs Darren Elkins · Oct 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jordan GriffinMetricTJ Brown

2.52

Strikes / min

3.37

3.02

Strikes absorbed / min

2.89

50%

Strike defense

49%

1.45

TDs / 15 min

3.41

42%

Takedown defense

36%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.50evenly matched on net striking+0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jordan GriffinTJ Brown

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jordan Griffin(5 fights)TJ Brown(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -81.9|Blue +81.9

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jordan GriffinTargetTJ Brown

By target zone

62% acc · 87%

Head

67% acc · 81%

100% acc · 13%

Body

86% acc · 19%

Leg

0% acc

By position

53% acc · 60%

Distance

41% acc · 28%

100% acc · 20%

Clinch

100% acc · 31%

100% acc · 20%

Ground

87% acc · 41%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jordan Griffin rounds

even

TJ Brown rounds

Round 1TJ Brown edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:05

18Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

4:30Control

Round 2TJ Brown edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:01Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 23

Sig Strikes

32 / 47

64%

Sig Str %

67.5%

20 / 28

Total Strikes

91 / 119

0 / 1

TDs

7 / 7

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

7:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	TJ Brown	18 / 24	56 / 70	4 / 4	0
1	Jordan Griffin	5 / 8	7 / 10	0 / 1	2
2	TJ Brown	14 / 23	35 / 49	3 / 3	0
2	Jordan Griffin	10 / 15	13 / 18	0 / 0	1

Jordan Griffin

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5

TJ Brown

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8