Flyweight

3 Rounds

Matt Schnell won · SUB R1

Elo1397

Elo1465

Jordan EspinosavsMatt SchnellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · Saturday, August 3, 2019Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Matt Schnell won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:23

Style matchupJordan Espinosa: Elusive strikervsMatt Schnell: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Matt Schnell wins(51.8%)

Actual result: Matt Schnell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Schnell at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Schnell threatens submissions; Jordan Espinosa has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Jordan Espinosa has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jordan Espinosa

Red Corner

Matt Schnell

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1397

Elo

1465

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jordan EspinosaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Eric Shelton · Mar 19

SUBvs Alex Perez · Jan 20

vs Mark De La Rosa · Jun 20

vs David Dvorak · Sep 20

vs Tim Elliott · Mar 21

latest

Matt SchnellL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24

SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24

vs Jimmy Flick · Apr 25

SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25

KOvs Alessandro Costa · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jordan EspinosaMetricMatt Schnell

4.22

Strikes / min

4.07

2.94

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

57%

Strike defense

55%

0.75

TDs / 15 min

0.60

70%

Takedown defense

43%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.28Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap-0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jordan EspinosaMatt Schnell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jordan Espinosa(6 fights)Matt Schnell(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -68.0|Blue +68.0

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jordan EspinosaTargetMatt Schnell

By target zone

67% acc · 40%

Head

18% acc · 67%

Body

100% acc · 60%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

83% acc · 100%

Distance

25% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jordan Espinosa rounds

even

Matt Schnell rounds

Round 1Jordan Espinosa edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:25

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 6

Sig Strikes

3 / 12

83%

Sig Str %

25%

5 / 6

Total Strikes

3 / 12

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:25

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Schnell	3 / 12	3 / 12	0 / 0	1
1	Jordan Espinosa	5 / 6	5 / 6	0 / 1	0

Jordan Espinosa

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6

Matt Schnell

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18