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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Jordan Espinosa won · U-DEC R3
Elo1397
Elo1385
Mark De La Rosa

Jordan EspinosavsMark De La RosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo · Saturday, June 13, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jordan Espinosa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jordan Espinosa wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Jordan Espinosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jordan Espinosa at -167 American odds

+$60 profit

$160 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jordan Espinosa enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Mark De La Rosa enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Mark De La Rosa threatens submissions; Jordan Espinosa has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Jordan Espinosa has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Jordan Espinosa has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jordan Espinosa
Red Corner
VS
Mark De La Rosa
Blue Corner
-167
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+157
(39%)
1397
Elo
1385
36
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'6"
175.26 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jordan EspinosaL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Eric Shelton · Mar 19
L
SUBvs Matt Schnell · Aug 19
L
SUBvs Alex Perez · Jan 20
L
vs David Dvorak · Sep 20
L
vs Tim Elliott · Mar 21
latest
Mark De La RosaL3 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Elias Garcia · Jul 18
W
vs Joby Sanchez · Nov 18
L
vs Alex Perez · Mar 19
L
vs Kai Kara-France · Aug 19
L
KOvs Raulian Paiva · Feb 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jordan EspinosaMetricMark De La Rosa
4.22
Strikes / min
3.13
2.94
Strikes absorbed / min
5.00
57%
Strike defense
48%
0.75
TDs / 15 min
0.54
70%
Takedown defense
40%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.28Δ 3.15 — meaningful gap-1.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1486 vs 1468Strikes4.3 vs 3.3Takedowns0.8 vs 0.7Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.20Form-0.6 vs -0.6
Jordan EspinosaMark De La Rosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Jordan Espinosa(6 fights)Mark De La Rosa(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +11.9|Blue -11.9
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jordan EspinosaTargetMark De La Rosa

By target zone

93
62% acc · 74%
Head
14
18% acc · 38%
16
94% acc · 13%
Body
12
63% acc · 32%
17
89% acc · 13%
Leg
11
58% acc · 30%

By position

69
59% acc · 55%
Distance
32
31% acc · 86%
39
85% acc · 31%
Clinch
5
31% acc · 14%
18
82% acc · 14%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Jordan Espinosa rounds
0
even
0
Mark De La Rosa rounds
Round 1Jordan Espinosa edged it
Sig. strikes49
Takedowns0
Control0:00
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:37Control
Round 2Jordan Espinosa edged it
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns0
Control0:00
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:55Control
Round 3Jordan Espinosa edged it
Sig. strikes39
Takedowns2
Control2:22
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
126 / 185
Sig Strikes
37 / 118
68%
Sig Str %
29.7%
188 / 254
Total Strikes
43 / 127
2 / 3
TDs
0 / 3
66%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:22
Ctrl Time
3:49

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mark De La Rosa6 / 297 / 300 / 30
1Jordan Espinosa49 / 6698 / 1180 / 00
2Mark De La Rosa17 / 5218 / 530 / 00
2Jordan Espinosa38 / 6547 / 750 / 00
3Mark De La Rosa14 / 3718 / 440 / 00
3Jordan Espinosa39 / 5443 / 612 / 30

Jordan Espinosa

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights6

Mark De La Rosa

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights7