Flyweight

3 Rounds

David Dvorak won · U-DEC

Elo1397

Elo1463

Jordan EspinosavsDavid DvorakUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Saturday, September 19, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

David Dvorak won

U-DEC

Style matchupJordan Espinosa: Elusive strikervsDavid Dvorak: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Jordan Espinosa wins(63.2%)

Actual result: David Dvorak wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jordan Espinosa at -112 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

David Dvorak enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Jordan Espinosa

Red Corner

David Dvorak

Blue Corner

-112

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-112

(53%)

1397

Elo

1463

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jordan Espinosa

oldest →

vs Eric Shelton · Mar 19

SUBvs Matt Schnell · Aug 19

SUBvs Alex Perez · Jan 20

vs Mark De La Rosa · Jun 20

vs Tim Elliott · Mar 21

latest

David DvorakL3 streak

oldest →

vs Bruno Silva · Mar 20

SUBvs Juancamilo Ronderos · May 21

vs Matheus Nicolau · Mar 22

vs Manel Kape · Dec 22

vs Steve Erceg · Jun 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jordan EspinosaMetricDavid Dvorak

4.22

Strikes / min

3.48

2.94

Strikes absorbed / min

3.29

57%

Strike defense

59%

0.75

TDs / 15 min

0.58

70%

Takedown defense

70%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.28Δ 1.09 — meaningful gap+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jordan EspinosaDavid Dvorak

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jordan Espinosa(6 fights)David Dvorak(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -66.0|Blue +66.0

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jordan EspinosaTargetDavid Dvorak

By target zone

13% acc · 32%

Head

33% acc · 44%

70% acc · 28%

Body

42% acc · 12%

87% acc · 40%

Leg

81% acc · 44%

By position

30% acc · 94%

Distance

45% acc · 90%

50% acc · 6%

Clinch

64% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jordan Espinosa rounds

even

David Dvorak rounds

Round 1David Dvorak edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2David Dvorak edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3David Dvorak edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 162

Sig Strikes

68 / 146

30.3%

Sig Str %

46%

50 / 162

Total Strikes

69 / 147

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	David Dvorak	18 / 41	18 / 41	0 / 0
1	Jordan Espinosa	15 / 48	15 / 48	0 / 0
2	David Dvorak	19 / 54	19 / 54	0 / 0
2	Jordan Espinosa	15 / 52	15 / 52	0 / 1
3	David Dvorak	31 / 51	32 / 52	0 / 1
3	Jordan Espinosa	20 / 62	20 / 62	0 / 0

Jordan Espinosa

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6

David Dvorak

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6