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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Alex Perez won · SUB R1

Elo1397

Elo1498

Jordan EspinosavsAlex PerezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, January 25, 2020Raleigh, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Alex Perez won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:33

Style matchupJordan Espinosa: Elusive strikervsAlex Perez: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Alex Perez wins(75.0%)

Actual result: Alex Perez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Perez at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jordan Espinosa has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jordan Espinosa

Red Corner

Alex Perez

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1397

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jordan EspinosaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Eric Shelton · Mar 19

SUBvs Matt Schnell · Aug 19

vs Mark De La Rosa · Jun 20

vs David Dvorak · Sep 20

vs Tim Elliott · Mar 21

latest

Alex Perez

oldest →

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Apr 24

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Jun 24

SUBvs Asu Almabayev · Nov 25

KOvs Charles Johnson · Jan 26

vs Sumudaerji · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jordan EspinosaMetricAlex Perez

4.22

Strikes / min

4.41

2.94

Strikes absorbed / min

3.20

57%

Strike defense

59%

0.75

TDs / 15 min

2.21

70%

Takedown defense

75%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.28evenly matched on net striking+1.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jordan EspinosaAlex Perez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jordan Espinosa(6 fights)Alex Perez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -101.5|Blue +101.5

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -126.0|Blue +126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jordan EspinosaTargetAlex Perez

By target zone

11% acc · 50%

Head

0% acc

Body

0% acc

25% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 100%

By position

15% acc · 100%

Distance

22% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jordan Espinosa rounds

even

Alex Perez rounds

Round 1Alex Perez edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 13

Sig Strikes

2 / 9

15%

Sig Str %

22%

2 / 13

Total Strikes

16 / 23

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Perez	2 / 9	16 / 23	1 / 1	1
1	Jordan Espinosa	2 / 13	2 / 13	0 / 0	0

Jordan Espinosa

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6

Alex Perez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights16