Welterweight

3 Rounds

Nathan Coy won · U-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1491

Jonavin WebbvsNathan CoyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · Sunday, February 21, 2016Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Nathan Coy won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJonavin Webb: WrestlervsNathan Coy: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jonavin Webb wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Nathan Coy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jonavin Webb at -260 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Nathan Coy (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jonavin Webb

Red Corner

Nathan Coy

Blue Corner

-260

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1356

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jonavin Webb

oldest →

vs Kyle Noke · May 15

latest

Nathan CoyL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Danny Roberts · Dec 15

SUBvs Zak Cummings · Apr 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jonavin WebbMetricNathan Coy

1.47

Strikes / min

3.88

2.27

Strikes absorbed / min

2.40

64%

Strike defense

61%

2.50

TDs / 15 min

3.17

40%

Takedown defense

50%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.80Δ 2.28 — meaningful gap+1.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jonavin WebbNathan Coy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jonavin Webb(2 fights)Nathan Coy(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -134.4|Blue +134.4

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +215.0|Blue -215.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jonavin WebbTargetNathan Coy

By target zone

20% acc · 62%

Head

25% acc · 62%

67% acc · 38%

Body

71% acc · 32%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

21% acc · 62%

Distance

14% acc · 30%

60% acc · 29%

Clinch

67% acc · 22%

33% acc · 10%

Ground

90% acc · 49%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jonavin Webb rounds

even

Nathan Coy rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:02

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Nathan Coy edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:17

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:14Control

Round 3Nathan Coy edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns2

Control0:14

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:57Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 77

Sig Strikes

37 / 112

29.3%

Sig Str %

38.7%

36 / 93

Total Strikes

71 / 152

3 / 8

TDs

3 / 5

30.3%

TD %

58%

Sub Att

Rev

0:33

Ctrl Time

7:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nathan Coy	12 / 59	12 / 59	0 / 0
1	Jonavin Webb	11 / 48	13 / 50	0 / 1
2	Nathan Coy	8 / 28	17 / 38	2 / 3
2	Jonavin Webb	7 / 16	13 / 22	1 / 4
3	Nathan Coy	17 / 25	42 / 55	1 / 2
3	Jonavin Webb	3 / 13	10 / 21	2 / 3

Jonavin Webb

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Nathan Coy

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3