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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ion Cutelaba won · U-DEC R3
Elo1362
Jonathan Wilson
Elo1498
Ion Cutelaba

Jonathan WilsonvsIon CutelabaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · Saturday, October 1, 2016Portland, Oregon, USA

Official fight result

Ion Cutelaba won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jonathan Wilson wins(69.4%)

Actual result: Ion Cutelaba wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jonathan Wilson at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jonathan Wilson
Red Corner
VS
Ion Cutelaba
Blue Corner
+100
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-120
(55%)
1362
Elo
1498
39
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'1"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jonathan WilsonL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Chris Dempsey · Aug 15
L
KOvs Henrique da Silva · Jun 16
L
vs Oskar Piechota · Oct 17
latest
Ion Cutelaba
oldest →
W
vs Ivan Erslan · Sep 24
W
SUBvs Ibo Aslan · Feb 25
L
vs Modestas Bukauskas · May 25
W
SUBvs Oumar Sy · Mar 26
L
KOvs Navajo Stirling · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jonathan WilsonMetricIon Cutelaba
2.92
Strikes / min
4.23
5.65
Strikes absorbed / min
3.28
56%
Strike defense
47%
0.37
TDs / 15 min
3.76
80%
Takedown defense
75%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.73Δ 3.68 — meaningful gap+0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1499 vs 1485Strikes35.0 vs 24.0Takedowns0.5 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.4 vs -1.0
Jonathan WilsonIon Cutelaba

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Jonathan Wilson(4 fights)Ion Cutelaba(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -135.3|Blue +135.3
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +14.0|Blue -14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jonathan WilsonTargetIon Cutelaba

By target zone

21
30% acc · 70%
Head
59
24% acc · 66%
6
100% acc · 20%
Body
20
74% acc · 22%
3
100% acc · 10%
Leg
10
100% acc · 11%

By position

30
41% acc · 100%
Distance
68
28% acc · 76%
0
0% acc
Clinch
21
49% acc · 24%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jonathan Wilson rounds
0
even
3
Ion Cutelaba rounds
Round 1Ion Cutelaba edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:25
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Round 2Ion Cutelaba edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
36Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 3Ion Cutelaba edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
30 / 78
Sig Strikes
89 / 283
39.3%
Sig Str %
31%
32 / 80
Total Strikes
92 / 286
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:25
Ctrl Time
0:08

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ion Cutelaba29 / 8230 / 830 / 00
1Jonathan Wilson10 / 3012 / 320 / 00
2Ion Cutelaba36 / 11738 / 1190 / 10
2Jonathan Wilson12 / 3112 / 310 / 00
3Ion Cutelaba24 / 8424 / 840 / 00
3Jonathan Wilson8 / 178 / 170 / 00

Jonathan Wilson

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights4

Ion Cutelaba

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights20