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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Pat Sabatini won · SUB R1

Elo1494

Elo1546

Jonathan PearcevsPat SabatiniUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Saturday, October 12, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Pat Sabatini won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:06

Style matchupJonathan Pearce: WrestlervsPat Sabatini: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jonathan Pearce wins(51.3%)

Actual result: Pat Sabatini wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jonathan Pearce at -180 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Pat Sabatini enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Pearce (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jonathan Pearce

Red Corner

Pat Sabatini

Blue Corner

-180

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1494

Elo

1546

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jonathan PearceL2 streak

oldest →

vs Christian Rodriguez · Feb 22

KOvs Makwan Amirkhani · Jul 22

vs Darren Elkins · Dec 22

SUBvs Joanderson Brito · Nov 23

vs David Onama · Apr 24

latest

Pat SabatiniW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Lucas Almeida · Jun 23

KOvs Diego Lopes · Nov 23

vs Joanderson Brito · Apr 25

vs Chepe Mariscal · Nov 25

DECvs William Gomis · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jonathan PearceMetricPat Sabatini

5.12

Strikes / min

1.69

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

1.16

54%

Strike defense

54%

5.02

TDs / 15 min

4.27

55%

Takedown defense

50%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.80Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap+0.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jonathan PearcePat Sabatini

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jonathan Pearce(9 fights)Pat Sabatini(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -52.3|Blue +52.3

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -168.0|Blue +168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jonathan PearceTargetPat Sabatini

By target zone

Head

50% acc · 67%

100% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 33%

100% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

100% acc · 100%

Distance

50% acc · 33%

Clinch

100% acc · 33%

Ground

50% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jonathan Pearce rounds

even

Pat Sabatini rounds

Round 1Pat Sabatini edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:56Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 2

Sig Strikes

3 / 5

100%

Sig Str %

60%

32 / 32

Total Strikes

19 / 25

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 3

—

TD %

66%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Pat Sabatini	3 / 5	19 / 25	2 / 3	1
1	Jonathan Pearce	2 / 2	32 / 32	0 / 0	0

Jonathan Pearce

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9

Pat Sabatini

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11