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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jonathan Pearce won · SUB R2

Elo1494

Elo1453

Jonathan PearcevsOmar MoralesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Saturday, September 25, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jonathan Pearce won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:31

Style matchupJonathan Pearce: WrestlervsOmar Morales: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Jonathan Pearce wins(68.3%)

Actual result: Jonathan Pearce wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jonathan Pearce at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jonathan Pearce enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Pearce (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jonathan Pearce

Red Corner

Omar Morales

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1494

Elo

1453

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jonathan PearceL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Makwan Amirkhani · Jul 22

vs Darren Elkins · Dec 22

SUBvs Joanderson Brito · Nov 23

vs David Onama · Apr 24

SUBvs Pat Sabatini · Oct 24

latest

Omar MoralesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Gabriel Benitez · May 20

vs Giga Chikadze · Oct 20

vs Shane Young · Mar 21

KOvs Uros Medic · May 22

vs Chris Duncan · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jonathan PearceMetricOmar Morales

5.12

Strikes / min

3.42

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

3.18

54%

Strike defense

58%

5.02

TDs / 15 min

0.46

55%

Takedown defense

63%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.80Δ 1.56 — meaningful gap+0.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jonathan PearceOmar Morales

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jonathan Pearce(9 fights)Omar Morales(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +41.0|Blue -41.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jonathan PearceTargetOmar Morales

By target zone

32% acc · 75%

Head

41% acc · 75%

75% acc · 25%

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

33% acc · 92%

Distance

44% acc · 67%

50% acc · 8%

Clinch

57% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jonathan Pearce rounds

even

Omar Morales rounds

Round 1Jonathan Pearce edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns4

Control2:22

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Jonathan Pearce edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns2

Control3:11

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 35

Sig Strikes

12 / 25

33.5%

Sig Str %

38.5%

55 / 83

Total Strikes

27 / 42

6 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

53.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:33

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Omar Morales	11 / 21	21 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Jonathan Pearce	10 / 29	28 / 48	4 / 7	0
2	Omar Morales	1 / 4	6 / 11	0 / 0	0
2	Jonathan Pearce	2 / 6	27 / 35	2 / 4	1

Jonathan Pearce

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9

Omar Morales

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6