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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Joanderson Brito won · SUB R2

Elo1494

Elo1538

Jonathan PearcevsJoanderson BritoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Saturday, November 18, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joanderson Brito won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:54

Style matchupJonathan Pearce: WrestlervsJoanderson Brito: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jonathan Pearce wins(66.1%)

Actual result: Joanderson Brito wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jonathan Pearce at -140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joanderson Brito threatens submissions; Jonathan Pearce has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Jonathan Pearce has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Pearce (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jonathan Pearce

Red Corner

Joanderson Brito

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1494

Elo

1538

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jonathan PearceL2 streak

oldest →

vs Christian Rodriguez · Feb 22

KOvs Makwan Amirkhani · Jul 22

vs Darren Elkins · Dec 22

vs David Onama · Apr 24

SUBvs Pat Sabatini · Oct 24

latest

Joanderson BritoW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jack Shore · May 24

vs William Gomis · Sep 24

vs Pat Sabatini · Apr 25

vs Isaac Thomson · Dec 25

SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jonathan PearceMetricJoanderson Brito

5.12

Strikes / min

2.43

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

2.32

54%

Strike defense

44%

5.02

TDs / 15 min

3.38

55%

Takedown defense

47%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.80Δ 1.69 — meaningful gap+0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jonathan PearceJoanderson Brito

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jonathan Pearce(9 fights)Joanderson Brito(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -44.3|Blue +44.3

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +210.0|Blue -210.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jonathan PearceTargetJoanderson Brito

By target zone

100% acc · 43%

Head

27% acc · 50%

50% acc · 14%

Body

75% acc · 38%

100% acc · 43%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

75% acc · 21%

Distance

33% acc · 50%

88% acc · 50%

Clinch

67% acc · 25%

100% acc · 29%

Ground

40% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jonathan Pearce rounds

even

Joanderson Brito rounds

Round 1Jonathan Pearce edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control2:28

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:58Control

Round 2Jonathan Pearce edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control3:47

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 16

Sig Strikes

8 / 20

92.5%

Sig Str %

21%

81 / 96

Total Strikes

33 / 47

1 / 4

TDs

1 / 1

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

6:15

Ctrl Time

1:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joanderson Brito	8 / 19	21 / 33	1 / 1	0
1	Jonathan Pearce	12 / 14	43 / 48	0 / 3	0
2	Joanderson Brito	0 / 1	12 / 14	0 / 0	1
2	Jonathan Pearce	2 / 2	38 / 48	1 / 1	0

Jonathan Pearce

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9

Joanderson Brito

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10