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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jonathan Pearce won · U-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1521

Jonathan PearcevsChristian RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · Saturday, February 19, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jonathan Pearce won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJonathan Pearce: WrestlervsChristian Rodriguez: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Jonathan Pearce wins(83.4%)

Actual result: Jonathan Pearce wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jonathan Pearce at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jonathan Pearce enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Pearce (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jonathan Pearce

Red Corner

Christian Rodriguez

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1494

Elo

1521

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jonathan PearceL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Makwan Amirkhani · Jul 22

vs Darren Elkins · Dec 22

SUBvs Joanderson Brito · Nov 23

vs David Onama · Apr 24

SUBvs Pat Sabatini · Oct 24

latest

Christian Rodriguez

oldest →

SUBvs Julian Erosa · Jul 24

vs Austin Bashi · Jan 25

vs Melquizael Costa · Mar 25

vs Andre Fili · Aug 25

SUBvs Hyder Amil · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jonathan PearceMetricChristian Rodriguez

5.12

Strikes / min

3.85

3.32

Strikes absorbed / min

2.85

54%

Strike defense

56%

5.02

TDs / 15 min

1.75

55%

Takedown defense

67%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.80evenly matched on net striking+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jonathan PearceChristian Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jonathan Pearce(9 fights)Christian Rodriguez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -27.4|Blue +27.4

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -49.2|Blue +49.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.2|Blue +49.2

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jonathan PearceTargetChristian Rodriguez

By target zone

29% acc · 50%

Head

39% acc · 81%

56% acc · 28%

Body

83% acc · 19%

100% acc · 22%

Leg

By position

30% acc · 56%

Distance

42% acc · 88%

83% acc · 28%

Clinch

50% acc · 8%

60% acc · 17%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jonathan Pearce rounds

even

Christian Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Jonathan Pearce edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control4:23

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Jonathan Pearce edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns3

Control3:15

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control3:39

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 44

Sig Strikes

26 / 60

40.7%

Sig Str %

41%

59 / 102

Total Strikes

38 / 77

6 / 10

TDs

2 / 2

58.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

11:17

Ctrl Time

1:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Christian Rodriguez	3 / 10	11 / 18	0 / 0	1
1	Jonathan Pearce	5 / 12	17 / 36	2 / 4	0
2	Christian Rodriguez	14 / 32	14 / 33	1 / 1	1
2	Jonathan Pearce	8 / 20	34 / 50	3 / 4	0
3	Christian Rodriguez	9 / 18	13 / 26	1 / 1	1
3	Jonathan Pearce	5 / 12	8 / 16	1 / 2	2

Jonathan Pearce

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9

Christian Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10